Who can retool the Conservative Party (UK) post-May?

[Blair]

Oh so many thoughts.

Firstly, Miles, as I said on the UK thread BoJo is a busted flush- he's got some of the worst personal ratings of any UK politician. His disastrous spell as Foreign Secretary (where his incompetent got a woman imprisoned in Iran) his prosperity for vanity projects as Mayor of London (spent £50 million on a bridge never built) and most of all, his callous lying in the 2016 vote, have all killed his 'brand'. His career was dead when Leave won- was confirmed when he was booed leaving his own home in London.

Besides the most divisive candidate never wins the Tory Selection- Ken Clarke, Portillo and Gove are all high profile politicians who lost because a mass of Tory MPs backed someone purely to stop them. If Boris runs, you'll have a lot of 'sensible' types backing Hunt, Javid or god probably David Davis, to stop Boris getting into the final round. (Where as Lumine says, the geriatric bigots in the Tory Membership will back him)


I'm stealing the argument from Stephen Bush- but the Tories debate is essentially one of Battersea vs Ashford. Do they try and win back the urban remain heavy seats that they easily won with Cameron, or do they double down and try and win Leave voting traditionally Labour seats (which have been swinging for the last 2 election cycles). Of course it's possible to do both.

In regards to the other runners and riders they reassemble the usual dire choices you get from Cabinet successors (no successful postwar PM with the exemption of Macmillan has emerged from the Cabinet) Javid and Hunt's main skill is surviving, and waiting for promotions that occurred from cock ups

[Blair]

Yeah- there were some genuine surprises (seats that had 10k Tory majorities in 2015 are now marginals) and likewise with Labour- the changes in turnout, decline of UKIP/Lib Dem voters, remain v leave, and untested leaders all meant that 2017 really was hard to model- and it will be the same in the next election