The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Blair]

Gillum is a failure. I roll my eyes every time he is coupled with Beto and Stacey. He lost to someone who ran a Neo-Nazi facebook page and refused to return the donation of someone who called Obama a Muslim N____r in a swing state that Obama won twice (!) so I don't want to hear about the Bradley effect.

Gwen would have won *ducks*

After her piss poor performance in the primary I disagree- she had a complete monopoly on the state party, and all the backing iirc of the usual special interests groups.

There may be 10,000 voters who really liked Scott, but hated DeSantis- but if you take out Gillum you get rid of the surge of African-Americans, and I still struggle to see who's voting Scott/Graham.

But yes- Gillum shouldn't run for President.

[Blair]

Gillum is a failure. I roll my eyes every time he is coupled with Beto and Stacey. He lost to someone who ran a Neo-Nazi facebook page and refused to return the donation of someone who called Obama a Muslim N____r in a swing state that Obama won twice (!) so I don't want to hear about the Bradley effect.

Gwen would have won *ducks*

After her piss poor performance in the primary I disagree- she had a complete monopoly on the state party, and all the backing iirc of the usual special interests groups.

While being outspent 3-1 by Levine and 3-1 by Greene, with a ton of that money was spent attacking her, as she was perceived as the frontrunner, and relatively little against Gillum; and still she came in a close 2nd in a crowded field. The primary is also a very different election than the GE.

Then she should have raised more money... but she was a boring, one term congresswoman who had nothing going for her other than her surname (and I say that as someone who would have voted for her in the primary!)
 

[Blair]

To reaffirm what others have said, its easy to fall into rather broad generalisations about the African-American vote, and how it changed. To pick up on a few things.

1.) IIRC Clinton was winning among AA's until late 2007- largely because as Adam mentions, her name ID was through the roof, and she had extremely strong ties among black lawmakers and community group. The AA vote didn't just bolt onto Obama when he announced.

2.) The African-American vote really needs to be split into Age, Region and Gender; there's such a vast political difference between say a 67 year black women from South Carolina, and a 19 black guy from Oakland.

3.) But finally, it should be remembered that the AA vote is disproportionately powerful in the deep southern states- where IIRC the AA electorate are older and much more female.

If I was advising Harris or Booker, I'd be chasing that vote for the whole campaign.