The Scramble: A 2015 UK General Election Game (Gameplay Thread)

[Blair]

The Scramble for No.10: A 2015 General Election Game

As cliched as the expression is, the 2015 General Election was one of the most uncertain elections for generations. Whilst previous elections have focused on the battle between the Conservatives, and Labour, several factors mean that the 2015 election could see the lowest vote share for the two main parties since the 1920s. The rapid rise of UKIP, the growth of Nationalism in Wales and Scotland, and the emerging threat on the left from the Greens mean that uncertainty will run through the entire election campaign.

After 5 years of Austerity, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition Government remains relatively unpopular, which many would assume would naturally make Labour firm favourites. However continued doubts of Ed Miliband's leadership, the threat of a wipe-out in Scotland and uncertainty about how far Labour should go in opposing austerity, all contribute to Labour's current woes.

The magic number for both Labour, and the Conservatives is 326- the number of seats needed for a formal majority. With neither parties on course for a majority, the focus will be on what party can get the largest number of seats, and what deals, pacts and arrangements they can reach with the smaller parties to form the next Government. Will the Lib Dems hold enough seats to keep the balance of power, will the SNP support a Labour minority Government, and will the Conservatives get enough seats to offset the natural anti-Tory bias among the smaller parties?

The Rules.

1.) You can either play as a party leader, or as one of the surrogates. Please, Please, Please only play as a party leader if you are genuinely interested in playing, and can sustain high quality posts.

2.) The format will identical to Lumine's campaign games; each turn will last a week (with the intention of having 6 turns) and players will post schedules, speeches, interviews and other campaign content. I will give higher marks for creative content. There will be two debates featuring all parties, and one-on-one interviews for the two main parties.

3.) On this topic, there is no TV advertising in UK Elections. This means that alternative ways of pushing your message and attacking your opponents are valued. Also remember that UK elections are driven by the Newspaper coverage, and the British Press can be brutal. (I will simulate this with brutality if needed)

4.) Manifesto Launches are the best chance to get press attention for your policies, and to frame your campaign. You'll each have one Manifesto launch that could either save, or sink your campaign.

5.) I'm going to steal Lumine's Command Point System taken from his previous UK game. Each party will have a set of Command Points (with the larger parties having the most) These command points can be spend on various campaign activities that will be listed below.

6.) Each party has brief guide below, these should guide your campaign at the beginning but don't take them as Gospel.

7.) This is the first game I've ran, so sorry fro the typos/poor formatting or general confusion. I want this to be fun, and a good insight into UK elections, but equally I will use the powers of the game to punish stupid behavior/decisions.

[Blair]

The Parties

The Conservatives. Leader: David Cameron.

Surrogates: George Osborne, William Hague, Michael Fallon and Boris Johnson.

Strengths.

+ Prime Minister David Cameron remains broadly popular, and is ahead of Miliband in his personal ratings.

+ Unemployment has been falling since 2012, and Labour's record during the Financial Crash offers good ammunition for the party.

Weakness.

- Cuts to public services, stagnating wages and concerns over the NHS mean the Tories will have to mount a strong defense of their record, or seek to move discussion away from the issue.

- UKIP, and the issue of Immigration pose a major threat both to the Conservatives seats in the South, and also in marginal seats where the party's vote could be hit by defections to UKIP.

Labour. Leader: Ed Miliband.

Surrogates: Harriet Harman, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper.

Strengths. 

+ The Coalition cuts to public services, and the the future of the NHS weight heavily in the mind of the public. Can Labour exploit this issue, and make the election a referendum on the NHS?

+ The collapse of the Liberal Democrats offers Labour a large group of middle class, educated and urban voters who they party could appeal to.

Weaknesses.

- Ed Miliband's personal ratings remain at dire levels, and few voters can see him as a potential PM. Will they seek to sideline Miliband or take his critics head on?

- Labour MP's in the Midlands, and North warn that concerns over Immigration and EU membership could seek a mass defection of traditional Labour voters to UKIP.

- Labour remain uncertain over what whether they'd continue the coalition cuts, or whether they'd seek a new economic approach. Likewise the legacy of New Labour continues to hang around the parties neck.

Liberal Democrats. Leader: Nick Clegg

Surrogates: Vince Cable and Danny Alexander.

Strengths.

+ Many MPs have a strong local following, and seats in Cornwall, Scotland and West London have long supported the Liberal Democrats.

+ With the rise of both UKIP and the SNP, along with both the increased ideological polarization of both parties offers the Liberal Democrats relative space in the centre of British Politics.

Weaknesses.

- Party Leader Nick Clegg is widely portrayed as betraying the party's voters, and is the most unpopular politician in the UK.

- The decision to raise tuition fees, along with support for the Conservatives has caused a vast amount of voters to defect from the Liberal Democrats. Will they seek to defend their record in Government?

UKIP. Leader: Nigel Farage

Surrogates: Suzanne Evans, Paul Nutall.

Strengths.

+Love him or loathe him, Nigel Farage commands a national profile and a unique ability to get in the news. He will be a crucial asset to the party.

+ The party's core message of opposition to mass-immigration is extremely popular with large parts of the general public.

Weaknesses.

- Gaffes by various UKIP politicians, along with controversial language around Immigration mean that UKIP still struggle to appear as a mainstream political party.

- The Parties vote is spread out across the country, meaning the party could struggle to get more than a few seats.

The SNP. Leader: Nicola Sturgeon.

Surrogates: Alex Salmond.

Strengths.

+After the Scottish Referendum support for the SNP skyrocketed, with thousands of new members joining the party. Many Scottish voters see the SNP as the only party who can stand up for Scotland.

+ The Party's opposition to Nuclear Weapons, NHS privatization and public sector cuts means the SNP can appeal to a large number of former Labour voters.

Weaknesses.

- Concerns about Scotland's future still linger, especially about the currency. What stance will the SNP take on Scotland's future?

The Green Party. Leader: Natalie Bennett.

Surrogates: Caroline Lucas.

Strengths.

+ Labour's lukewarm support for Austerity, support for Trident and move rightwards on Immigration all offer the Greens a space on the left of British Politics, and a chance to appeal to Labour and Liberal voters in urban areas.

+ The Greens have a unique political identity, and message focused around environmentalism  that could appeal to various elements of the British Electorate. How much will they focus on this?

Weaknesses.

- Party Leader Natalie Bennett is seen as poor media performer, and a lack-luster campaigner. How will the Greens offset this?

- Much like UKIP, the Green vote is spread out and lacks a geographic heartland. Will the party focus on a few target seats, or try to hope for a national surge?

[Blair]

Turn One. March 30th-April 6th.

Parliament dissolved in anticipation of the 2015 General Election.

As MPs, staff members and hundreds of others sprawled out of the parliamentary estate very few had any idea just what circumstances they'd be returning to in 6 weeks time. Would Ed Miliband defy his critics and enter No.10? Would he need the support the SNP to get a Queens Speech through Parliament? Or would David Cameron defy both his critics (both inside and out of the Party) and see off the multiple threats to his narrow path to forming a governing majority.

Polling Average

Labour: 36%

Conservatives: 35%

UKIP: 12%

Liberal Democrat: 9%

Green: 3%

Other: 5%

Most Important issues for voters.

1.) Immigration.

2.) National Health Service.

3.) Economy.

4.) European Union.

5.) Education.

[Blair]

Turn One Recap.

The Purple Revolution?

As campaigning kicked off across Britain the stand-out star was Nigel Farage, and UKIP. The innovative decision to launch their manifesto in the first week, the populist stances on immigration and the NHS, along with the low-key Tory Campaign has lead to an early surge for UKIP. Indeed UKIP's success seems largely borne out of it's ability to broaden the parties policies, and no longer appear to be solely obsessed about Europe.

The one surprising, but effective tactic from Farage was his choice to turn his fire on Ed Miliband, who many in the press agree is extremely weak to attacks over issues such as Immigration. One Labour backbencher warned of a 'a flood of purple on election night', but will this turn out to the true?

UKIP continued to be limited to the thin spread of its vote; even with its increased performance in the polls, the party would still struggle to win more than a handful of seats on a good night. Likewise the attacks by Leanne Wood has unveiled UKIP's soft underbelly- the wiff of extremism, racism and just general kookiness that still exists in the party. 

The New Left?

Another surprise from the first week of campaigning was the strong performance put in by two of the minor parties- Plaid Cymru, and the Green Party. A senior Labour advisor even joked that the most googled question after this weeks TV debates would be 'Who is Leanne Wood?'.  Whilst both parties are severely limited by the electoral map (with Plaid only be competitive in a handful of seats, and the Greens being widely perceived as a wasted vote) the two parties also show the wide gap that remains open on the left in British Politics. Whilst Labour has certainly moved leftwards since Miliband's election in 2010, the party still retains it's pragmatic support of Tuition Fees, Trident and spending cuts. Whilst Labour Strategists know that the two parties could only snatch a small number of seats, the biggest danger is that defections to both parties could see a much higher number of marginal seats slip from Labour's grasp. Finally, rumours of a pact between Plaid and the Greens has lead some to question whether a new alliance is set to emerge on the left.

From Europe with Love?

Two rather bizarre events that emerged both centered around the European Union. The First was Nicola Sturgeons shocking support for British Membership of the Euro, which lead to a frenzy of attacks in the Tabloid Press, with the Daily Mail telling her to 'Keep your Tartan Stained Fingers off our Pound', whilst the Sun described as the 'Wicked Witch of Brussels'. Figures in all the major parties admitted that Sturgeons comments had cut threw, and had harmed the party in a selection of more traditional seats in Aberdeen, Inverness, and Edinburgh where a relatively strong local economy relied on the Pound Sterling.

Laying a Cable?

The second bizarre, and even more shocking campaign revelation came from Vince Cable, who whilst campaigning in York told reporters that he supported holding a referendum on Britain's EU membership. Cable's intervention was rightly seen as a widespread rebuke not just to Clegg, but indeed the entire Party, who pride themselves on their strong Europhile views. Cable's intervention sunk the party's initially successful week, and overshadowed Clegg's attempt to re-brand himself.

With the Party's messaging around Europe now in disarray, many activists across the Party rebuked Cable, with Paddy Ashdown calling it a 'uncharacteristically unwise comment'. Indeed some in the party such as Simon Hughes and Tim Farron have publicly called for Cable to be sacked from the front-bench, and denied a position in any potential coalition. The big decision now for Clegg is whether he will simply rebuff Cable, or take a much firmer stance against Cable's defiance.

[Blair]

Turn Two. April 7th-April 14th.

The first week of campaigning seemed to confirm that the 2015 Election truly would see the death of the two main parties. Although Labour's campaign had seen a steady stance, with interventions by Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham very valuable, both main parties had failed to dominate the news agenda in the first campaigning.

The real star of the first week was Nigel Farage. Filling the political vacuum by jumping on populist issues surrounding immigration and the NHS, Farage and UKIP put themselves at the centre of the campaign. One UKIP Staffer even joked that the party 'might have wasted all our ammo at once, but we've given Goliath a great big wack'. Indeed reports of private polling from both Labour's and Tory marginals have shown a small but significant shift- the major problem is that both parties remain convinced that they seek to benefit from UKIPs rise. The central question is will the Labour and Tories seek to mirror UKIP's populist (if inflammatory) rhetoric, or will they try and confront UKIP head on?

Whilst the Liberal Democrats would consider themselves as the natural 'progressive' opposition to UKIP (as seen in the 2014 EU Election Debate) Vince Cable's support for a EU referendum has thrown a spanner in the Lib Dems campaign. Indeed, the saga mirrors the Lib-Dems wider problem- should they cast themselves as a pragmatic party of Government (with a record to defend) or should they present themselves as a progressive party?

What's clear is that all the parties will be hoping that the first round of TV debates can either serve as continued fuel, or a much needed spark for their election campaign. With uncertainty about whether David Cameron will even attend, many pundits are unsure about what impact the debates will have. What is clear is that it will offer a chance for the minor parties to continue to chip away at the major parties.

Poll of Polls

Labour- 34% (-2)

Conservatives-33%. (-2)

UKIP- 17% (+5)

Liberal Democrats-8% (-1)

Green Party- 4% (+1)

Other-4%.

[Blair]

2015 General Election Debates hosted by ITV.

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Question for David Cameron?

1.) In 2010 you pledged to reduce Net Migration down to the 'tens of thousands'. You've failed to meet this pledge, and net migration has increased since you came into Government. Why should voters trust you, when you again claim that you'll reduce immigration?

Question for Ed Miliband

1.) A major concern for many voters, and indeed many MPs, is that you're simply not up to the job of being Prime Minister Mr Miliband.  How can you convince voters that you'll be a strong enough figure to represent Britain on the world stage?

Question for Nigel Farage.

1.) Leanne Wood, and many others have pointed out the history of UKIP candidates making homophobic, sexist and generally bigoted remarks. Indeed one UKIP candidate even blamed gay people for turning his Donkey gay. Can the British public really trust UKIP to represent them in Parliament?

Question for Nick Clegg

1.) Despite your party's drop in the opinion polls, there's a chance that you could remain kingmaker in the next parliament. You've been in coalition with the Conservatives for the last 5 years- will you continue to support them if there's a hung parliament?

Question for Nicola Sturgeon?

1.) You've come under a lot of fire for calling for the UK to adopt the EU. We've seen what's happened with the Euro in Greece, Ireland and Portugal- as someone who's never been elected outside of Scotland, why should you dictate what currency the country uses?

Question for Natalie Bennett?

1.) It's widely assumed that in a hung parliament the Greens would support a Labour-led Government to stop the Conservatives, what concessions would you demand from Ed Miliband for the support of Green MPs?

Question for Leanne Wood?

1.) One of your parties central policies is an increase in devolved powers for Wales. Many people fear that if you were given these powers, you would, much like the SNP, later push for an Independence Referendum. Will you rule out supporting an Independence Referendum?

[Blair]

The Guardian: 'Pact Lunch', Greens and Plaid Cymru reach a limited deal to stand candidates down in key seats.

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