I think Obama's ratings will follow a trajectory similar to that of Ulysses Grant's. Grant was thought of as a terrific president when he left office and for some years after, but as time went on his popularity faded and his approvals sank to the lower end of the spectrum. I think people who did not live through the Obama administration will eventually see that his economy wasn't great, that his reelection was slim, that the two midterms over which he presided were terrible for Democrats, and that he ultimately failed to pass the torch to his hand-picked successor.
The last 3 are totally irrelevant to Obama's performance as President. And the economy was fairly good at the end of his term. He was handed the worst economy since the Great Depression, yet he got us out of the recession way faster than FDR. Obama will look great in history as the President who helped get us out of such a horrible great depression despite facing such big opposition.
Obama was overall a good president, even if I didn't always like what he did.
As for overrated presidents: FDR, Kennedy, and Wilson. Moreso Kennedy and Wilson than FDR.
I don't see how you can say that the four elections since 2008 haven't been referenda on Obama. The gradual loss of Democratic seats in the House, Senate, and state governments will always be a part of Obama's legacy. I'd also venture to say that the 2010s will be remembered as a pretty divisive and polarizing time period, no doubt contributing to the rise of Donald Trump.
But Obama won the two most important referendums on his performance (2008 and 2012) The reality is that
any Democrat would have struggled to defend the seats the party won in 2008. Whether it was Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry or Mark Warner, the party would have been slaughtered.
Equally important to note that in 2012 Obama certainly helped the Democrats keep the senate (I haven't number crunched but I assume he was pretty vital in keeping VA/WI at the least). It's pretty clear that Obama was an exceptional candidate, and wasn't the norm for Democratic performance (hence the party losing in 2004/2010/2016 etc). It's the Democratic brand that has been trashed, not Obama.
Besides, I can't think of any historical President who is judged by their midterm performance. Like even as a relative presidential history buff, I'd struggle to say how Johnson/Kennedy/FDR/Truman performed in their mid-term elections.
It's largely irrelevant when you've already got three pretty big things from Obama's legacy: first AA President, Health Care and Donald Trump.
