Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Blair]

If anyone is bored feel free to come to my CLP meeting next week and watch me do a crap imitation of Neil Kinnock's 'A Labour Council, a Laaaabour council' speech

[Blair]

In all fairness they're the token 'right wing' union who Endorsed Burnham last year. I've heard that GMB will endorse Owen, and that Unison could follow. Despite all the talk we had about unions they're truly dying even in the Labour Party- only 70,000 voted last Summer. The only power they have is their cash, and stopping Unilateralism passing.

In other news the Grassroots slate has romped home in the NEC elections- increased the Corbyn Majority by 2. I'm not an expert on the NEC at all, but I spoke to several people who didn't vote because they had no idea (I think my first one was in 2014 and I literally voted by seeing who I liked in the book)

Final news- I expect that Jess Phillips and others could be planning on resigning the Whip if Corbyn wins...

[Blair]

Why the hell was Skinner elected for the PLP slot?

[Blair]

Why the hell was Skinner elected for the PLP slot?

He wasn't. He lost the seat in 2014 (came 4th), but then filled the position of John Healey (the right-winger who defeated him) who was promoted to Corbyn's shadow cabinet last year.

Jon Trickett replaced Eagle in one of the 3 Shadow Cabinet NEC spots, so this year has yielded a net gain of 2 for the Left on the body.

If anyone is bored feel free to come to my CLP meeting next week and watch me do a crap imitation of Neil Kinnock's 'A Labour Council, a Laaaabour council' speech

Which CLP are you gracing your presence with?

Lewisham West and Penge. Was called a racist last time I spoke so it can't go any worse

[Blair]

I still find it amazing that Corbyn tried to sack Jon Ashworth on the day of his NEC vote, and yet still clings to the idea that he's an honest, politician.

I'm reading that Jon McNicol is apparently going to get couped, a Corbyn source said (so that's Milne) Surely if this happened at Conference then it would go Nuclear? In terms of resistance all we've got left are the Whips (like the SAS, first to enter, last to leave, as I saw joked on twitter), Tom Watson and the people at Party HQ.

To summarise in the last 2 months we've had

+80 odd shadow Cabinet Ministers, Under-Ministers and PPS resign
+ Every former Leader telling Corbyn to resign
+ The Deputy Leader trying to get him to resign.
+ An 81 year old backbencher with two ministerial jobs.
+ His Shadow Home Secretary leading a deal to get him to resign.
+ An attempt to sack a shadow Cabinet member on the day of the NEC vote, only to be overruled by his new Cabinet.
+The NEC voting to put Corbyn on the ballot
+ Another NEC vote to pass a freeze to try and weaken him.
+ A failed court case against the first, and a successful one against the second.
+ A subsequent appeal by the Party, opposed by the Leader.
+ A continuing leadership election.

Surely this is the worst crisis ever for a British Political Party since the Liberals ran two parties in the 1920's?
 

[Blair]

To be fair to the Unions they did a good job of stitching up the 2010 Leadership election ( I say that as someone who admired Ed) Oh how I miss the old Electoral College

[Blair]

GMB back Owen Smith; members voted 60-40% for Smith.

[Blair]

Why the hell was Skinner elected for the PLP slot?

He wasn't. He lost the seat in 2014 (came 4th), but then filled the position of John Healey (the right-winger who defeated him) who was promoted to Corbyn's shadow cabinet last year.

Jon Trickett replaced Eagle in one of the 3 Shadow Cabinet NEC spots, so this year has yielded a net gain of 2 for the Left on the body.

If anyone is bored feel free to come to my CLP meeting next week and watch me do a crap imitation of Neil Kinnock's 'A Labour Council, a Laaaabour council' speech

Which CLP are you gracing your presence with?

Lewisham West and Penge. Was called a racist last time I spoke so it can't go any worse

Fantastic result!

We lost 112-62.

Had someone from Militant Speak- that was interesting

[Blair]

Unison backing Corbyn. Ashame.

No full ballot but they at least did bother to speak to regional groups, and had an email consultation

[Blair]

Yes- he could get 190 seats and 27% of the vote, and 35% of the Party would still back him- they'll blame it on the PLP, Media etc He'd most likely resign- but you'd say the same after Shadow Cabinet walk out

[Blair]

Does anyone reckon this could be like the 1981 Deputy Leadership?

[Blair]

Would I be wrong to say that momentum has shifted to Smith?

Yes, you would be wrong.

the result will be a lot closer than people expect

[Blair]

As I've said a million times we can thank the heavens that we've got Owen, and not Angela Eagle.

Even others like Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer (both unknowns) lacked the experience to take on Corbyn. Labour crop of talent is awful at the moment- as I've also said hundreds of times in 2010 we should have had Harman, Johnson, or D Miliband rather than skipping a generation

[Blair]

As I've said a million times we can thank the heavens that we've got Owen, and not Angela Eagle.

Even others like Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer (both unknowns) lacked the experience to take on Corbyn. Labour crop of talent is awful at the moment- as I've also said hundreds of times in 2010 we should have had Harman, Johnson, or D Miliband rather than skipping a generation

Harriett Harman? There is actually people liking her? Even the moderates I know in Labour Party don't like her.

She was often mocked (because God forbid a female leader is a outspoken feminist) but was a competent character- her 2007 deputy leadership election is the most impressive internal victory considering she was expected to come 4th.

My point was that we needed a big name from 2010-2015; we made the mistakes the Tories made with going for Hague in 97, and then IDS in 2001.

[Blair]

I always thought that Smith could at least get to 43-45%.

Shocking thing is 68% of members who joined before GE 2015 support Smith. These are the people who canvass, work as Councillors etc. Labour's 500,000 is a paper tiger

[Blair]

to sum up the poll I'm being asked to go to a fundraiser tomorrow for Owen's campaign, on a cheaper ticket.

I doubt that 19 year old students are the types with lots of money flowing around- heck I already gave him 5 quid and the ticket for this thing costs 10 quid.

[Blair]

For what its worth I've just seen the internal phone bank data from the Smith Campaign.

Corbyn 45% Smith 39% Dk: 14%

[Blair]

She had that Marr interview where she outdid Chukka and everyone for about a week was talking about aspiration; she had a rather true pitch that people want a 'a good job, a good house and someone to love'

Then she started putting forward policies that would have lost in 2010, not just 2015 

[Blair]

It's looking more, and more likely- maybe with the understanding JC could still have 3-4 positons.

We'd basically be reverting to Sep 2015- a shadow Cabinet full of people who don't actually support Jeremy

[Blair]

Will an elected shadow cabinet be bound by collective responsibility? If so, what happens when Jeremy Corbyn is outvoted on issues he feels very deeply about? Would the leader have to resign or rebel against the party line or just allow free votes on all major issues?

They'd do what they did last year- threaten to impose a three line whip, threaten to sack cabinet, hold a free vote and then slag off half the Cabinet to the Press.

On other issues.

Corbyn wants 'access' to the Single Market, but not membership. Cue shock that JC is a Euroskeptic

[Blair]

for what its worth Labour will still win the cities- whilst a GE would be bad I can't see us going lower than 180 seats

[Blair]

The Smith Campaign is an 'ABC' campaign- to tell with an anecdote Smith got the least amount of applause in his speech I saw when he was saying how bad Iraq was, and how we need a war powers act.

The majority of people I talk to who are volunteering etc admit that we can't win. True point about canvassing; as someone who has canvassed for last two years it's the same old faces every time. I mean I'll turn up to CLP meetings to have some debate but I can't go doorknocking telling people to vote Labour when they're lead by Corbyn

 

[Blair]

To reply to politically lefty.

To give a comparison Hillary Clinton is to strain an analogy similar to Gordon Brown (although he was much more popular in 2007, than she was in 2015) If Brown faced John McDonnell back in 2007 (John didn't get enough MP's to get on the ballot) then that would be equal to the Democrats in 2016- basically the entire clout of the Part (elected officials, donors, outside groups etc) backing the person who've been talked about as the next leader since they got passed over (Brown in 1994, Clinton in 2008)

For my own comparison the Democratic Primaries seem a lot calmer than the Labour leadership this year- which has been extremely hostile. The similarity could be that Sanders did a lot better with people who weren't democrats/benefited from same day registration in the way that Corbyn did well last summer with the £3 membership.

I disagree lastly about the need for a 'strong establishment' candidate; the only 3/4 I could think of who could run- Hillary Benn, Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Alan Johnson would all have lost for Iraq.

 

[Blair]

Is Iraq really that more toxic for Labour than it is for Democrats that it would derail winning leadership? That's hard to believe.

Yes. The last two people who won the leadership ran on 'Iraq was a disaster; I will not let it happen again' Iraq is a much bigger decision largely because it was undertaken by a Labour PM, and also because the democrat base doesn't equal the Labour Party one (especially as new members tend to be ones who left during Iraq)

The only real analogy would be a popular figure that served in Blair's Cabinet that wasn't named Gordon Brown.

Again, Alan Johnson. Served as Health, Business and Home Secretary. Extremely popular in Labour circles, successful author, former trade union head.

From what I've heard in the party Yvette was canvassing for support if JC wasn't on the ballot; her people have been briefing her as the 'Michael Howard' figure who'll step in only if she gets crowned. She was everyone's 2nd choice last year for a reason

[Blair]

Even stranger than Lib Dem factions are Lib Dem voters