Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Blair]

Worth nothing that Eagle has briefed the press like this before (believe it was Wednesday 30th when her team said they'd run at 3pm the next day)

Rumours going round the party that Red Len used the peace talks to buy Corbyn time, and that a lot of Unite friendly MP's are very pissed off at him

[Blair]

Could it get any worse for Labour at this point? This is just sad to watch.

Always
 

What exactly makes Diane Abbott so unpalatable as a leader?

It's a long running joke in Labour circles. Much like Harriet Harman (former deputy leader) she's a woman who's been around in politics for ages and is seen as 'patronizing', 'out of touch' and other vague qualities.

Now I don't like her because she's a devout Corbynite- but the two most vocal corbyn supporters I do both 'despise' her, and say that she's just stupid. She ran on Jeremy Corbyn's platform in the Mayoral Primary last summer and only got 16% of the vote.

[Blair]

FTR there's a lot of clear policy differences between Angela and JC, namely: Trident (she supports) and Syria.

She's very much been told my her team not to talk about policy, and to run on a 'saving labour' platform. From the looks of it her campaign is going to be 'I'm not Jeremy'.

Even as someone who'll most likely work for her campaign I'd rather someone like Dan Jarvis, Chukka Umunna, Caroline Flint etc lead us into the next election.

[Blair]

For those interested I've created a leadership bingo- 5 points every time you hear these words.

+Mandate
+Democratic
+Entyrism
+Blairitie

[Blair]

Tbh registered supporters should have to pay more, to at least get staff in who can vet them

[Blair]

Has anyone seen Eagle's Launch/Sunday TV interviews? They're awful. Even in her launch she failed to put forward anything other than 'I'm not Jeremy'

 I expect if Owen launches he'll make a dig- and basically say 'we need to have someone with a vision, not just an opposition' ( I should be a speech writer )

As I've said about 100 times Smith ticks a lot of boxes that Eagle doesn't- 1.) didn't vote for Iraq/Syria 2.) Is a much better speaker 3.) Was actually touted as leadership material before

[Blair]

Angela Eagle's office has been bricked.... kinder, gentler politics?

[Blair]

The most heart breaking moment for me was seeing Tom Watson yesterday say that 'I've been called a fixer for years, yet I couldn't fix this''... if this was a novel it would be him saying that moderating influences of the Trade Unions and Soft Right (which removed Lansbury in '35, and stopped Benn in '82) is officially dead.

To make a bold prediction- they'll be a 'blairite' party that is out of touch, and a socialist party that is even more out of touch

[Blair]

Can she vote by Proxy? From my own calculations if all 13 trade unions vote to put Corbyn on the ballot then he's easily home dry

[Blair]

Well a secret ballot makes it much better.

I just read that Paul Flynn told him to resign- that's right the 81 year old bloke with two cabinet jobs. At this rate I'm going to do my dissertation on the last two weeks alone in British Politics.

Also, how are they briefing from inside the NEC meeting? I mean are people literally pulling the old secondary school trick and having their phone underneath the desk

[Blair]

they voted 17-15 to have a secret ballot... surely you'd only vote for a secret ballot if you wanted JC to be stopped?

[Blair]

I feel like this is going to be a perfect political thriller in 5 years- Michael Caine as Jeremy Corbyn?

Worth noting that if Corbyn resigns a 'left winger' like Lewis/McDonnell would only need 35 nominations to get on the ballot, as it's different during a leadership election (rather than a challenge)

[Blair]

I'm not going to get my hopes up, because well I've been claiming for ages that he'll resign but I've got a bottle of 6.99 Prosecco ready

[Blair]

Apparently the 15-17 vote was swung by two women who feared online abuse/threats against voting- whilst that doesn't mean anything one side certainly has more of a reputation for that.

[Blair]

The big question is do I go to my ward CLP meeting tonight; which is often about 8 old people (myself the youngest by about 40 years) talking about the Guardian but could prove rather hostile tonight... or do I sit here on twitter waiting for the result?

[Blair]

Why not do both?

Well according to the email it's being held in the pub because our usual hall is getting done up- could be interesting

[Blair]

Who decided those entry rules? They're very very very harsh (my only hope is that the saving labour types can afford to pay 25 quid)

[Blair]

Who decided those entry rules? They're very very very harsh (my only hope is that the saving labour types can afford to pay 25 quid)

The NEC decided them. Would be interesting to find out who proposed them though; I presume Watson or a friend. Almost half wonder whether this was priority no.1 with the ballot access thing being half a long shot and half a distraction?

Well I read it was on a tied vote after Corbyn left.

Shock result from NEC was that Keith Vaz voted with Corbyn- there goes his chance of becoming Speaker.

It's such a stupid system, that could be challenged/changed. Labour member who joined 6 months ago (and paid Direct Debit up till now) can't vote yet if you pay out £25 next week you can (but members can't)...

[Blair]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

[Blair]

Hear there are going to be hustings between Eagle and Smith today in the PLP to see who faces Corbyn.

As I said before it all comes down to 'GBs v TB's' again. If Watson backs Smith then there's no way I can see Angela winning

What does GBs vs TBs mean?

Refers to the Brown Supporters v the Blair supporters- most MP's from the centre and right (even the ones elected in 2010/2015) tend to float towards the old brownites in the party (Tom Watson, Chris Bryant, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, etc) or the Blairites (Ben Bradshaw, Caroline Flint, Wes Streeting)
 
As said it's very little about ideology, and more about petty differences- to give a good example my local MP who's from the right of the party spend about 5 minutes last summer slagging of Tom Watson  (despite the fact he probably agrees with him on 99% of issues)

[Blair]

Owen Smith looks to be gaining steam- has already announced he'd want a ref on any new Brexit deal (much like DC did in 2005 about Lisbon) and has attacked Eagle for being supported by people on the far right of the party- for the 11th time with the new membership rules I see Smith having a chance

[Blair]

There's something very stupid about PLP. Even if they manage to unseat Corbyn at an election, all of the "voter suppression" they've engaged in will make that a hollow victory. I myself have no opinion on whether their voting requirements are fair or unfair or whatever, but they do seem like a politically bad idea. It's the perfect excuse for Corbynites to not accept a defeat.

If they had just waited until 2020, waited for Corbyn to possibly lose, they could have been back on track for 2025. Now, their best case scenario is 45% of their own voter base are going to permanently regard them as scum. Their worst case scenario is that they get exiled from politics forever if Corbyn wins and they all get reselected.

Their first arugment against Corbyn is that he's unelectable, but they aren't helping them.

Their second argument is that he can't control the PLP, which is kind of circular logic (we oppose him because we oppose him). However,  the PLP. The goal of the leader isn't to soothe the parliamentary caucus - it's to win the next election because you can always get a new parliamentary caucus.

It's the same NEC that voted for JC to be on the ballot... if Jeremy hadn't gone outside to address his fans he would have been able to vote.

Besides telling the PLP to wait until 2020 is pretty stupid, considering we were/are working under the assumption of a snap general election

[Blair]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

[Blair]

Owen Smith launched today- apparently has the backing of over 100 MPs, appears to be picking up a lot of steam. Expect Eagle will drop out in exchange for shadow Chancellor+ 50/50 cabinet split promise.

A big Pharma lobbyist, really?

PLP really wants to lose the working class areas to UKIP.

Worked as there head of policy from 2006-2008. Considering he opposed the merger in 2014 involving Phzifer, and is on the soft left of the party I don't see it as much of an issue.

I honestly think someone from South Wales, with his policies and approach is going to do much better than a 66 year old Islington socialist who doesn't sing the national anthem

[Blair]

Ugh I need a whisky