The 2018 Insurance Commissioner race is a good map to look at to when trying to predict benchmarks. 2003 was a long time ago and I think it's bit extreme to think the recall is going win 70%+ in Southern California and only narrowly fail in Los Angeles County like back then.
Poinzner's performance in the Bay Area was really strong though. My guess is that the Yes option won't fare as well there but it might do better in SoCal (if it ends up being close, obviously). But agree that 2003 numbers in SoCal don't look like they are possible in the post-Trump era.
