The Economist: Forecasting the US elections (user search)
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June 17, 2024, 01:54:11 AM
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Author Topic: The Economist: Forecasting the US elections  (Read 8761 times)
Skye
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« on: June 11, 2020, 05:40:59 AM »
Model has:

83% Biden win
EC: Biden wins 331-207
National PV: Biden 53.8%, Trump 46.2%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +2
MI: Biden +6
NC: Biden +1
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +5
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2020, 02:53:16 PM »
Silver and Cohn out of the shadows to say their thoughts about the model:
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2020, 01:39:38 PM »
So, the past few days, several pundits (Silver, Cohn, Trende, Wasserman) have been giving their "thoughts" on the model (i.e. mostly critiques) and Morris has been defending it, but this by far the most confrontational of the interchanges:
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Skye
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Posts: 4,592
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2020, 05:10:14 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 30, 2020, 04:15:04 PM
C) Eliott, however, is giving in again- saying that the popular vote, which shows, what Biden, +8/9, is still too high? When that's *literally* what the poll averages are showing right now?

I think he's referring to the part of the model that says Biden has a 99% chance of winning the popular vote. That's basically uber safe territory and I definitely can see criticism towards that part.
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