Guys, this race is nothing else than a pure tie.
The wild swings and outliers only indicate that pollsters have absolutely no clue what is going on there.
Bredesen is a very popular elder statesman and there is nothing to suggest he would lose by more than 2 or 3 points and it's more likely that he wins the thing.
Not sure why you would draw the conclusion from various polls that (while swinging wildy) on average show a GOP lead, the race is a tie and the Democrat is likely to win. Especially since this is TN.