TX-SEN: True to Form

[Skye]

Likely R. Cruz is very unlikely to lose, though I could see his margin getting reduced to something like Trump's.

[Skye]

Senator Barnabas Glenn Ellis.

Previous occupation: lives in parents basement

Texas Class 1.

Won in 2012 against Ted Cruz, 52-43. Only one to file in primary because of apathetic TexDem party.
Was down in the all the polls by about 5-6 points, until a certain tape was released of Ted Cruz and Maria Cantwell exactly two weeks before the election. Polls quickly showed a double digit reversal, and Ellis scored an upset.

Please let this occur except with Beto as the dem nominee.

A modern day Democratic victory map in Texas would be pretty fascinating. Maybe the candidate gets around 60% in both Harris and Bexar?

[Skye]

Texas is not the deep south lol dems get something like 25-30% of the white vote at the very least typically (I might be underdoing that)

Correct. Clinton got 26%.

[Skye]

Emerson poll out tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/SpencerPolling/status/1033847446789677058

Predictions? O'Rourke lead anyone?

[Skye]

I don't think anyone is on the edge of their seat waiting for an Emerson poll, lol.

Just you wait if it shows O'Rourke leading.

[Skye]

Sabato moves the race to Lean R, from Likely R.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2018-at-least-for-now-the-elephant-endures/

[Skye]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/03/us/politics/mcconnell-senate-judiciary-supreme-court.html

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Take that FWIW.

(I'm super angry that I clicked on a NYT article that I didn't want to read).

[Skye]

I have to say O'Rourke did better than I expected. I knew it wasn't going to be enough, but still, his 48% is super impressive.

[Skye]

Did anyone see the down ballot races? The Democrats got great numbers here too. Abbott was the only one who got over 55% and even he underperformed. Betomania was strong.