Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in Trouble

[Skye]

He wouldn't beat Scott by double digits, but I'm not too worried about him losing to Scott either, who barely scraped by twice, both in incredibly good years for Republicans. Democrats should, of course, put some attention into this race, but there are far more worrisome seats.

Let's not underestimate Scott. His 2014 race was incredibly though, and he overcame double digit deficits to win in the end. And most people here thought Crist was going to win.

[Skye]

Challenging an incumbent in a (probably) D-leaning year is a much steeper hill to climb than running as an incumbent in an R-leaning year.

Yup, this. Stop pipe-dreaming on a plausible but improbable Scott victory. As long as Nelson performs to his standards, he will defeat any generic R by 8-15 points. My current projection from my gut is that Nelson triumphs 54-44 against Scott or strong Republican recruits, and 56-42 against other Mack IV replicas.

Unless Scott runs an incredibly bad campaign, he probably isn't going to lose by 10 points. Mack was just generic R running against a popular incumbent and that's why he lost big. I do agree, however, that he starts as the favorite, and that's good enough for him for now.