That article underestimates the reactionary backwardness and racism of Texas whites. Whites in Texas are going to get even more Republican in their voting as Democrats increasingly become the brown and black party. I don't think Dems have hit a floor with Texas whites.
Try 2040, not 2020 for Democrats to start winning statewide.
Highlighted part is necessary because the racist whites in Texas are especially evident of the 65-and-older voting-age group. Though the state wasn't exit-polled for Election 2012, the difference between 65-and-older in Elections 2004 (a Republican hold of the presidency) and 2008 (a Democratic pickup of the presidency with a national margin shift of D+9.72) were as follows:
2004 TEXAS
65+ (11): Democratic [Kerry] 48%
2008 TEXAS
65+ (14): Democratic [Obama] 32%
In 2004, John Kerry's loss of the 65-and-older voting-age group was 4 percentage points (Bush carried them with 52%). In 2008, Barack Obama's loss of the 65-and-older voting-age group was 34 percentage points (McCain carried them with 66%).
The 65-and-older voting-age group in Texas allowed for John McCain, in 2008, to have his 11.76 percentage-points margin. And, compared to their 2004 vote, the 65-and-older Texas voters definitely did it because of racism.
Is there any excuse for a white southerner to vote for Kerry but not Obama other than race ? I am old enough to vividly remember the 2004 election and how Kerry was mocked and pilloried by the Republicans.
He was seen as an out of touch french speaking, flip flopping Northeastern Liberal who didn't support the troops and was weak on the war on terror. Other than Obama being black, I can't see why he could be worse than Kerry to the typical elderly white Southerner.
Especially considering Bush was from Texas and had a home state bonus. I actually have a hard time believing those 65+ numbers are real. Do you have a citation?
Yes.
It's from the book How Barack Obama Won: A State-By-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election, by NBC News' Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser.
I'll present other numbers. (In case you think they're inaccurate.)
2004 TEXAS
18-29 (20): Democratic [Kerry] 41% | Republican [Bush] 59%
30-44 (29): Democratic [Kerry] 31% | Republican [Bush] 68%
45-64 (40): Democratic [Kerry] 37% | Republican [Bush] 62%
65+ (11): Democratic [Kerry] 48% | Republican [Bush] 52%
Atlas: Democratic [Kerry] 38.22% | Republican [Bush] 61.09%
2008 TEXAS
18-29 (16): Democratic [Obama] 54% | Republican [McCain] 45%
30-44 (31): Democratic [Obama] 46% | Republican [McCain] 52%
45-64 (39): Democratic [Obama] 41% | Republican [McCain] 58%
65+ (14): Democratic [Obama] 32% | Republican [McCain] 66%
Atlas: Democratic [Obama] 43.63% | Republican [McCain] 55.38%
Gimmie a break. Black Republicans have won elections in Texas by comfortable margins against white Democrats because of ideology, not race. I'd bet a higher percentage of the whites who voted for Obama did so because they cry themselves to sleep at night with white guilt than the ones who voted for McCain did so because they're "racist".
Let me guess, when a similar percentage vote for the Republican over Hillary it will be because they're evil sexists.
