Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Cassius]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve Baker attracts a significant following, even if it’s not enough for him to get to the final two.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1547177911236558848
Vote for me guys! I'm *checks notes*, 1% ahead of the Leader of the Opposition.

In the valley of the blind the one eyed man is King.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1547187804081356800

Well, at lease she can’t be accused of wanting to take us back to the eighties or the fifties, it’s the sixties instead.

Shouldn’t be difficult to find a tired and emotional Tory MP to run this new department.

[Cassius]

The Mordaunt bandwagon is genuinely bizarre.

[Cassius]

That tally looks like a road accident.

[Cassius]

Rishi Sunak trying not to laugh at the sight of Liz Truss burying herself in an antipodean hole simply by opening her mouth was probably the highlight of the night.

[Cassius]

Whilst we don’t quite know what’s going to happen in the final round, I was pretty confident that Mordaunt would come a cropper after that first debate and it seems to be happening.

[Cassius]

Tbh, whilst the polls for Sunak don't look great at the moment, I think both Truss and Mordaunt are eminently beatable for him in the membership vote, particularly given a month long hustings. Mordaunt more so perhaps, as if you're on the right then there really isn't any especially good reason to vote for her over Sunak, but I don't necessarily think that Truss' right-wing posturing is the advantage that some assume it to be, given that the party membership has tended to back the more 'electable' candidate in past contests (with the exception of IDS vs Clarke in 2001).

[Cassius]

My calculation:

Sunak: 132
Truss: 116
Mordaunt: 108

Reality:

Sunak: 137
Truss: 113
Mordaunt: 105

To me this suggests there was no funny business.

Tbh, whilst the polls for Sunak don't look great at the moment, I think both Truss and Mordaunt are eminently beatable for him in the membership vote, particularly given a month long hustings. Mordaunt more so perhaps, as if you're on the right then there really isn't any especially good reason to vote for her over Sunak, but I don't necessarily think that Truss' right-wing posturing is the advantage that some assume it to be, given that the party membership has tended to back the more 'electable' candidate in past contests (with the exception of IDS vs Clarke in 2001).

Battle lines have been drawn between you and I, my friend.

[Cassius]

This thing has been over since the first debate which Sunak pretty clearly flubbed. Problem is that if he withdraws now, it makes a mockery of the whole membership vote idea; but if he doesn’t withdraw, then we have to sit through a month of incredibly pointless campaigning. Sigh.

[Cassius]

The Bank of England has raised interest rates by the biggest amount in 25 years, inflation to go even higher to 13%, longest recession since 1990s, deficit to get a lot worse.

This is obviously going to be completely solved by cutting public sector pay and offering basic rate tax cuts in a few years time.

What did anyone expect when the Great Panic Saving the Lives of Your Grannies was pursued two and a half years ago? The support for which often outflanked support for the monarchy and the NHS in the polls, incidentally.

Except basically everywhere reacted in the same way, and while inflation is an issue across the world, it is currently running at 6% in France and 3% in Switzerland. Both countries which spent enormous amounts in respoding to the panic and yet which are both in rather better economic situations than the UK.

Overall, how bad inflation is in Europe tracks pretty closely to the single factor of how much fossil fuel a country burns- Which is why Germany and the Netherlands are suffering badly too. But if the UK is the stand out worst. Well that is entirely the Conservative party's mismanagement of the country way beyond the response to Covid, and a very big part of it being down to the genius decision to erect a load of trade barriers in order to appease a crowd of elderly, white, homeowning reactionaries.

The point about the energy sources used by respective countries is correct, but the present rate of UK inflation is not ‘the stand out worst’ - the differences in the levels of inflation between the UK, Germany and the Netherlands (and the US and Sweden and Italy to pick some more examples) are not statistically significant. We certainly do have a tighter labour market thanks to leaving the EU, but that’s only a small part of the reason why prices are surging (energy, as you pointed out, although post-pandemic hangover is also a key factor).

[Cassius]

My understanding of the Department for Levelling Up is that it was the new name for the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship?

There’s an excellent comedy just waiting to be written about a Department for Levelling Up, that’s for sure.

[Cassius]

Sunak should drop out given how badly he’s s*** the bed. Personally I think the rules should be changed to scrap the membership vote, at the very least for periods when the party is in office, but he’s clearly not going to win so another month of this ‘campaign’ is going to be a massive waste of time.

Sigh, the Bride of Chucky has it.

[Cassius]

Truth always hurts.

[Cassius]

Truth always hurts.

"This is my truth, tell me yours".

Great album.

[Cassius]

My calculation:

Sunak: 132
Truss: 116
Mordaunt: 108

Reality:

Sunak: 137
Truss: 113
Mordaunt: 105

To me this suggests there was no funny business.

Tbh, whilst the polls for Sunak don't look great at the moment, I think both Truss and Mordaunt are eminently beatable for him in the membership vote, particularly given a month long hustings. Mordaunt more so perhaps, as if you're on the right then there really isn't any especially good reason to vote for her over Sunak, but I don't necessarily think that Truss' right-wing posturing is the advantage that some assume it to be, given that the party membership has tended to back the more 'electable' candidate in past contests (with the exception of IDS vs Clarke in 2001).

Battle lines have been drawn between you and I, my friend.

You lost, Cassius. The new regime will purge you and your gang.

Oh what horrors await you at a gulag in Sunderland.