Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Cassius]

Seeing some people commenting on Twitter (so take this with a HUGE grain of salt), that it is (was?) Russia's plan to reinstall Yanukovych as president of whatever is left of Ukraine after all of this. The Russians cannot possibly be **that** stupid, right? It's one thing to put someone in power from the opposition that people do not have any real strong feelings towards, but that guy? If Yanukovych is eventually reinstalled, he wouldn't last a year.

Yanukovych has said he wants Crimea back in Ukraine. He doesn’t bow low enough to be reinstalled - I think this is clickbait.

Plus, the association between Yanukovych and Moscow was always primarily a marriage of convenience. The former was not so much “pro-Russian” as pro-Yanukovych, but was happy to align with Russia (in the end) due to Moscow’s willingness to offer support with fewer strings attached than the EU. He was never fully trusted by the Russian leadership and they considered him to be essentially incompetent. At this stage I’d think the most likely figure for a Russian puppet leader in Ukraine would be someone like Medvedchuk (who is actually close to Putin).

Also, any kind of ‘UN intervention’ is obviously off of the table because it wouldn’t be able to muster enough support internationally and, in any case, would simply be vetoed by Russia and China.

[Cassius]

The Serbians were probably concerned that voting against or abstaining might have a negative impact upon their accession talks with the EU.

[Cassius]

Re Israel, aside from the enormous Russian speaking diaspora population, there's a lot of Russian investment in the country (many 'oligarchs' are Jewish and have business interests in Israel) and there has also been a reasonable amount of coordination between the Russian and Israeli governments over the security situation in Syria (Russia has also pointedly refrained from criticising Israel's policies towards Palestine). The Russian government also makes small (but symbolic) monthly payments to Israeli Russians who emigrated prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union and to the dwindling band of Soviet war veterans now residing in Israel.

[Cassius]

We've already gone beyond freedom fries 2.0, sadly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1499146526404358148

I mean, this is a war principally about nations and nationalism (whatever kind of high-and-mighty airy-fairy bullsh**t both sides attempt to bedeck their respective casus belli in), so it's not surprising that nationalist sledging should begin to take place.

(indeed name me a war that hasn't seen this kind of behaviour take place, although of course, theoretically, in the West we're not at war with Russia).

[Cassius]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/chollimaorg/status/1499244829846687744

I don't give much credibility to a source I've never heard of that's named after a North Korean symbol. But if true that is ridiculous.

It's corroborated by the Hill, with named sources. This would be a huge departure for American foreign policy, to truly make a stand on principle while ignoring the obvious and unfavorable geopolitical implications.

The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said.  

The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors.

It’s quite clear that not only has Putin (evidently) cracked, but that the invasion of Ukraine has also broken the brains of most Western leaders too. Disturbing times.

[Cassius]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

[Cassius]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

Yes, because the reason we are imposing sanctions is totally to own the Russkies and not because they decided to invade a sovereign nation of 40 million people and now are literally razing cities to the f**king ground.

Are the sanctions stopping that?

[Cassius]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

Yes, because the reason we are imposing sanctions is totally to own the Russkies and not because they decided to invade a sovereign nation of 40 million people and now are literally razing cities to the f**king ground.

Are the sanctions stopping that?

Do you have a f**king crystal ball?

So that’s a no is it?

[Cassius]

Difficult to work out whether the Brest-Litovsk Zwei stans are being ironic or not, but worth remembering that present day Russia is essentially within the borders of what was agreed at Brest-Litovsk.

Gee, I wonder...

If there is one thing that’s clear, it’s that this whole Ukraine crisis has broken Cassius’s brain.

I mean, my brain’s been broken since I read the Usborne Internet Linked Encyclopedia of History from cover to cover in 2000, but I’m not the one dismantling the global economy in order to make a point.

Yes, because the reason we are imposing sanctions is totally to own the Russkies and not because they decided to invade a sovereign nation of 40 million people and now are literally razing cities to the f**king ground.

Are the sanctions stopping that?

Do you have a f**king crystal ball?

So that’s a no is it?

They're clearly hurting the interests of the oligarchs, which increases the likelihood that someone within the governing elite in Russia will topple Putin, and that's the only easy way out of the crisis.

I mean, the ‘oligarchs’ don’t run Russia (certainly not people like Abramovich and Usmanov), but that aside, this has been the logic behind broad based sanctions on Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba, and has failed to bring about regime change in all four cases (instead the result is often intensified domestic repression and authoritarianism). Possibly Russia will be different, but that seems… unlikely, unless there is a commitment from the West to full restoration of normal relations conditional upon a pullback from Ukraine and the removal of Putin (a commitment that also seems unlikely to be forthcoming).

The best way to effect regime change is always military action, but for good reason there is no appetite for this in the West. So, what are we left with? Russia continues to blast its way through Ukraine, whilst the Russian economy is slowly crushed by sanctions, potentially wiping out the living standards of millions of innocent Russians. Meanwhile, we in the West suffer from the concomitant effects of the economic dislocation caused by attempting to isolate Russia from the Western economy - rocketing energy bills, broken contracts, lost jobs etcetera. All for a policy that is unlikely to save a single Ukrainian life.

[Cassius]

Makes sense re Lukoil; they have (well had) shares trading on the Western exchanges and, afaik, the Russian government isn’t a shareholder and there aren’t any particularly Putiny types on the company board. Vagit Alekperov’s (the CEO) rise also well predates that of Putin and, if I remember correctly, neither is on especially warm terms with the other. Still a relative surprise.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499395103957434369?t=f-yAhOUWL77MFl63W...

Almost sounds like some World War I style deal...

Pretty sure there was many an Irish Rebel who fought on the battlefields of Europe under the Union Jack who came back home to Ireland with their military experience and used it liberate their land.

Hell, even look at US Vietnam Vets who came home and joined the Black Liberation Movement as another example.

If it’s legit it’s probably just a threat. For what it’s worth re Ireland in World War I there was actually no conscription imposed there during the war (although there was a failed attempt in 1918), all of the Irish troops who served were volunteers (many of them drawn from John Redmond’s National Volunteers organisation initially) and only a very small proportion of those made their way into the IRA after the war.

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

[Cassius]

Anyway, the West clearly appears to be approaching the limits of sanctions. The shift towards seizing the yachts and homes of Russian businessmen abroad clearly smacks of desperation.

I don't see it as desperate at all. Giving the oligarchs a direct personal incentive to get back to the pre-invasion situation (by getting rid of Putin) seems like an obvious move. Many (arguably most) of the playgrounds of the rich are located in Western countries or small island nations dependent on the West, so if those are off limits it becomes a lot less enjoyable to be an oligarch. 

Yeah but the vast majority of these people aren’t important to the decision making process in Russia. They may be wealthy but they’re politically impotent. There are exceptions, like Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft), but people like that are fully aligned with Putin’s worldview and their fates are bound together with his.

[Cassius]

Of course, despite the fact that any war crimes investigation is going to be purely symbolic because Moscow is not a member of the ICC (just the US funnily enough), the only effect I can see if an attempt to arraign from afar the Russian leadership for war crimes is the strengthening of Vladimir Putin’s position in the Russian government, because if, somehow, a war crimes trial did take place, you’d probably have to arraign all of the other members of the government as well (plus military commanders etc). They, obviously, will not be interested in this happening.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1501322317557018624?s=21

YES....HA HA HA...YES!


Another report:
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1501322504341655552?s=20&t=RwNiFOFls...

This is not a good thing (in fact arguably better for Russia than for those counter parties exposed to a default, at least in the short term).

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1504157074372108300?s=20&t=Zf2RGNOBURt...

Also, I am not the 'Oryx' who is nicely posting military updates on twitter btw.

 This is effing excellent. I hope most literal kidnapping criminals posing as real soldiers who Committed this war crime kidnapping him all died a very gory and painful death.

These were not some poor conscripts who have nothing to do with Putin or his foreign policy, but special forces with the ugliest reputation in the world.. H*** is just a little bit Fuller with their deaths

It was a prisoner swap - the Russians got back nine men in exchange.

[Cassius]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

[Cassius]

Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

I mean, the principle ‘ideology’ of every Ukrainian government for the last thirty years has been ‘gib money pls’ (Poroshenko’s coddling of nationalism and Zelensky’s dressing himself up as a defender of liberal democracy notwithstanding). The only reason that there has been no authoritarian consolidation in Ukraine (as occurred in most other post-Soviet states) is because the country is too variegated and ultimately it suits big business interests for there not to be one dominant figure to whom they owe subservience (in this sense Ukraine is in fact more oligarch dominated than Russia is commonly assumed to be). The current Ukrainian government simultaneously appeals to the liberal west for arms and arms Ukrainian Neo-Nazis (they may be small in numbers but this is verifiably true). Zelensky and the Ukrainian elite aren’t fighting for democracy and liberalism, they’re fighting because they don’t like the Russians and don’t want the Russians muscling in on the pie in Ukraine (and now of course they’re fighting for their lives, which they’re obviously entitled to do).

[Cassius]

How the hell do you spend 22 years and trillions of dollars 'modernising' your military only for this to happen?

I would not want to be a Russian senior officer right now.

Really it’s only 14 years or so, but that’s beside the point. Russia is the invading power attempting to advance over thousands of miles of territory against well-entrenched defenders, so it faces an inherent disadvantage there, one that has been compounded by poor logistics and a questionable overall strategy. Meanwhile, Ukraine was basically able to match the initial Russian invasion force man-for-man in terms of troops on the ground, so this was not the David vs Goliath type situation that was often assumed prior to Feb 24th (especially since the proficiency and equipment of the Ukrainian army has seen significant improvement since its fairly lamentable performance during the early stages of the War in the Donbas).

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1506604722744172546?s=20&t=mXtgyu...

All is not sound at the top of the pyramid.

Chubais was hardly at the top of the pyramid, but it will be interesting to see what the other ‘systemic liberals’ like Alexei Kudrin do (not that it will make much difference since the influence of the ‘systemic liberals has been neutered over the last decade)*.

*As a historical note, as far as I’m aware Chubais was the only remaining government official (other than Shoigu) to have been a member of the reforming Gaidar cabinet way back when in 1991.

[Cassius]

To be fair, I think the Continental System is actually a reasonably apposite comparison.

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1507442015323234305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...Putin is calling in some more Nazis

At this rate Putin will be calling up Landsknechts and Wild Geese to swell the ranks.

[Cassius]

Speaking of which... new polling numbers from Germany (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, released today) are available.


Opinion on further intensifying sanctions on Russia
Support 77%
Oppose 18%
Don't know 5%

Opinion on stopping oil and gas imports from Russia
Immediately, even if it leads to shortages 28%
Only when the energy supply is secured 54%
No embargo at all 14%

Is the German government doing enough to make the country independent of of Russian oil and gas?
Yes 37%
No 52%
Don't know 11%

Opinion on temporary speed limit on highways to reduce fuel consumption
Support 25%
Support a permanent speed limit 50%
Oppose 24%

Increasing costs and prices are is in many areas a big problem for the wealth in Germany
Yes 73%
No 26%

It is a problem for me personally
Yes 34%
No 65%

The aid Ukraine is receiving from Germany is...
Appropriate 50%
Too little 37%
Too much 7%
Don't know 6%

Can Germany handle the many refugees from Ukraine?
Yes 84%
No 12%

So this isn’t unique to Germany, but 82% ban Russian gas imports, 72% but not if it affects my life in any way makes me want to tear my hair out.

That’s people for you. Fact is most ordinary people don’t have much in the way of spare cash to burn for the sake of Ukraine.

[Cassius]

A NYT article via yahoo (thus free to read) on the Russian shift to the East, the loss of the A team and how they're trying to scrap up troops and mercs for the Eastern push

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-recruiting-mercenaries-syrians-ukraine-115514041.html

At the risk of being too glib for an actual war, it almost feels like the plot for "Blazing Saddles"  when every villain in the West (and then some) was signed up to attack Rock Ridge.   It's a pity that the Ukrainians can't build a fake town for the Russians to attack, because they might actually fall for it.

I kept saying this war felt like something from some sort of Children's Show but Blazing Saddlers is at least as good of an analogy.

Having a Methodist contingent in a Russian army would certainly be a novel addition.

[Cassius]

Another Ukraine poll.

Encouraging to see that anti-Russian sentiment is that low in spite of all Ukraine has suffered.

The anti-Russian option has an overwhelming majority on three of the six questions, whilst the opposition to dismantling World War II monuments is hardly surprising given the contribution made by Ukrainians during that conflict. As for the literary question, to have only 30% opposing such a move is a pretty low one given the contribution to world literature made by the Russian literary canon (especially when you consider how many Ukrainians have read or have had to read elements of that canon at some point).