How long will it be before Labour wins another election? (user search)
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  How long will it be before Labour wins another election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How long will it be before Labour wins another election?  (Read 1817 times)
Cassius
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« on: September 18, 2016, 07:17:00 PM »

As Al alluded to, it's important to remember that, in spite of all the infighting and chaos in the Labour Party over the past year and a half (intensifying in the last 3 months) Labour has, if I recall correctly, never dipped below 27% in the opinion polls, and has often been polling as high as 30-33%. Now, even if we don't trust polling entirely (with good reason, considering last years election), these are not catastrophic figures - it's not enough for Labour to get back into government, and they may lose further seats on this share of the vote (especially if the Tory share goes up), but I can't see Labour being under 200 or so seats if things continue to pan out as they are. That's not factoring in Labour getting its act together (either under Corbyn or somebody else) or, perhaps more likely, the government becoming so deeply unpopular that even a divided Labour party looks good by comparison. I mean, the Conservatives have a small majority, and are going to have to deal with one of the trickiest issues for this country in decades, leaving the EU. Add to that the fact that they seem hell bent on going out on a limb with other controversial projects (ie the Grammar Schools thing), and things could turn very bad very quickly for the government. Whilst Theresa May seems to have this (in my opinion confected) image as a competent, serious politician, this image is going to take a bruising between now and the next election, and she may not be the asset that she appears to be now.

I don't think it's out of the question that Labour could form some sort of minority government in 2020, but then again, forming a government under such circumstances may not be a good thing for the party.
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