MUH TARIFFS

[Cassius]

I'm not sure as to why the south would have to live in fear of northern revanchism in a hypothetical scenario where the CSA survived. First and foremost, I'm not really sure as to what incentives the US would have to invade the CS; whereas during the civil war it was a question of maintaining the credibility of the United States, should the US lose that war, that credibility will be out of the window anyway. Without that incentive, what incentives remain. To fight another bloody war (with the possible threat of foreign intervention, given that the Uk would certainly have recognised a victorious Confederacy), leading to further deaths and disruption, in exchange for what, governance of a large, rebellious tract of land (probably wracked by prolonged guerilla warfare), which would by then have an even more entrenched sense of its own nationality. Furthermore, there would probably be a very influential peace lobby in Union politics post-war, since a defeat (especially one in the early days of the war, a more likely scenario) would severely discredit the war lobby. I can imagine a situation developing that would be similar to the one between Britain and the Republic of Ireland; the British government fought hard to keep Ireland under control, but when we realised the game was up, independence came for the south and though hostility persisted, this never boiled over into actual war. Why? Because there was no clear cut incentive to do so, and I can imagine the same happening in the case of a Confederate victory.