Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[IceAgeComing]

There won't be a snap election: the May thing will overshadow that one for a long time (the Johnson thing was genuinely a Parliament that could not decide anything on the most fundamental issue other than it didn't like the government so that's a genuine reason to go to the country again) plus remember: in September the new leader enters office: in October domestic energy bills will rise over 60% (after a 53% rise in March and a substantial rise last October) which will fuel even more inflation and there's a genuine worry that the European gas market (which the UK is a core part of: we have zero domestic gas storage so rely on exporting LNG to Europe during the summer months and drawing that back during the winter plus also Ireland gets their gas from the UK) might end up running out of all reserves during the winter while would force remarkable demand reductions which would hit businesses and people - that's an insane time to even contemplate holding an election in. Winter 2023/24 isn't likely to be that great either if the causes of this stuff carry on so that isn't an option either, really.

They could go to January 2025 if they wanted to but they won't unless things are really bad: winter elections are historically very unusual. I assume the government have May 2024 pencilled in at this point but if they are well behind and they think things might improve they'll try a winter 2024/25 campaign.

[IceAgeComing]

Also they've been in office for twelve years; at some point you can't simply blame the previous administration for all the problems that you could have mitigated