So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[Colin]

I place blame on both countries but this should be a short, quick war in which Russia defeats Georgia in about a week and a half and South Ossentia gets what it wants.

Pretty much this. I don't expect this war too last much longer than 2 or 3 weeks.

Isn't that what they said about Chechnya?

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

Doubtful. If anything it'd be much worse than Chechnya. Georgia is a country prone to guerrilla warfare and the Turks and Azeris will be sure to provide any insurgency with a steady supply of weapons.

I agree with the Azeris for sure but I am doubtful with the Turks supplying the Georgians with anything. Also there will be a significant part of the population that will colaborate with the Russians.

Why do you think some Georgians would collaborate with the Russians? I'm sure most of them despite Russia by now (outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia of course).

BTW, Russia has accused Turkey of supporting Georgia by supplying it with weapons and ammuniton (story here). What Russia is hoping to achieve by angering Turkey I can't fathom.

I meant ethnic Russians.

Russians are only 5.7% of the population. This isn't like the Ukraine or Estonia were large portions of the population are Russian or think of themselves as Russian.

[Colin]

I know they only make up 6% of the population but it doesn't take much to come up with an occupation force and base of support among the populace, especially if you are Russia. I wouldn't be surprised if Ossetians make up a large part of it.

Chechnya has a Russian population that is nearly as large, 3.7% versus 5.7%, and it was a mess to try and control. If Putin and Medvedev make the mistake of trying to occupy Georgia they will not only have nearly complete condemnation from the international community but also another Chechnya but on a much larger scale.