Might Election 2020 look something like this? (user search)
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  Might Election 2020 look something like this? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Might Election 2020 look something like this?  (Read 7116 times)
Colin
ColinW
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« on: February 11, 2007, 04:51:58 PM »

I don't think so. I have a feeling that the parties themselves won't change much at all, and any changes will be determined by demographic trends. That leaves us with Democratic states losing population, but the Democrats slowly advancing in nearly every swing state to give a map like this one:



60% - Safe
40% - Lean
Grey - Toss-up

Note that, while in 2008 this map would favor the Democrats, after two reapportionments it will probably be close to even.

Why would Indiana have any major electoral change from now in Presidential voting? So a few populist Democrats win seats in Indiana in one of the worst years for the Republicans in the last 20 years. I don't think that will start some ball rolling where Indiana will go into the "lean" column. I somehow doubt that a state that last voted Democratic in 1964, voted for both Wilkie and Dewey, and was only won by Grover Cleveland between the Civil War and 1912. Indiana is one of those Republican states that has been Republican since, basically, the beginning of time. Not saying that it couldn't happen I'm just saying that Indiana will probably stay the same as it is now for a good time to come.
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