When will the foreign votes be counted?
I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.
You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1
I see, thanks.
So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?
There are two emigration electoral circles, Europe and Out-of-Europe, each electing 2 MPs. Europe leans PS, so usually the seats end up divided, although the PS can win both in a good year; Out-of-Europe is very PSD and they tend to win both seats there.
Perhaps it'd be more accurate to say that mainland immigrants lean left while islanders (that make most of the immigrant population in the USA, Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, South Africa) are overwhelmingly right-wing.
If there's going to be a right-wing minority government dependent of PS MPs' outside support, what are the chances that it will collapse before 2019?
Minority governments in Portugal:
1976 - PS won a plurality. Governed the first two in a parliamentary agreement with the CDS, then a formal government coalition that lasted one year. Fell once the CDS withdrew from the govenrment. A PSD+CDS+PPM coalition won the following elections with an absolute majority.
1985 - PSD won a plurality. Formed a minority government that lasted for 2 years, with PS or CDS support. Fell to a motion of no confidence. PSD went to win an absolute majority in 1987.
1995 - PS won a plurality. Lasted the entire 4 years legislature, relying on the support of either the PSD or the CDS. Went to win the following elections with a larger plurality.
1999 - Another PS plurality, now with 115 seats. Relied mostly on buying a CDS MP with pork to the municipality he was also the president (in the process, that municipality became the richest in the country). Lasted for 2 years, fell after the a bad result in the municipal elections. Lost the following elections and PSD+CDS formed an absolute majority government.
2009 - PS plurality. Lasted for 2 years, relying on PSD support. Fell after requesting and negotiating the bailout with the troika.
PS should let PSD form a minority government, wait for them to come up with an austerity budget, and promptly refuse to vote it. Then new elections would be called, and PS would be well positioned to win them.
Perhaps, but I find it doubtful. There has been an almost 10 points swing between the PS and the coalition in the last six months and I'm not sure what is going to reverse that trend now - surely not something that would be seen as creating instability so soon. Portugal is already doing fiscal easing this year and it's very unlikely that the fiscal stance will change back in the next ones. The differences between any PSD or PS budget will only be in details because the country as a very tight budgetary rope to walk, barring violations of the EFC.
PS/PCP/BE - 50.87%
PSD/CDS - 38.55%
These results are incredibly frustrating. By all accounts, the Portugese right was given a good thrashing and yet they will likely return to power...
I've said in the other thread that this isn't a proper analytical grid to apply to Portugal and that people shouldn't expect a government coalition between the PS and the far-left parties. There's a reason why it never happened in 40 years, in spite of many opportunities.
At the end of the day, the PS is much closer to the PSD and the CDS than to the BE or the PCP. Those parties have no interest in entering governments because that would probably mean death to them, or at least a serious coma a la Lib Dems in the UK- and these elections showed once again how hard is life in Portugal for non-established parties. Perhaps it'd make more sense to see the BE and PCP as analogous to the FN in France.
