I'm pretty sure the GOP could nominate a cardboard cutout of Ronald Reagan and still win more than one state. Rand Paul, like just about any other Republican, would start out with Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, Kansas, North and South Dakota, Montana, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina and Nebraska as a floor.
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Agree on every state except for WV. Obama was a TERRIBLE fit for a state that was otherwise open to voting for Democrats. Hillary almost certainly would have won it in '08 had she been the nominee. You can choose to believe that '08-'14 in WV have constituted "trends," but I see more of an exception. A nominee like Clinton would make it close vs. more than a few Republicans.
