Obama and NC.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think  he will do better then Kerry's 27%.

And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out. This is the case every time. Just because there are people fainting over Obama's message of hope and change and the call for a new kind of politics, doesn't mean these kids your age will turnout. They never have in the past.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh God.

Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.

Once again, I think the theme of racist voting patterns is overplayed... NC is an extremely economically vibrant state with a fast population growth rate, many of those professionals and working-class folks from Northern states. The climate is nationally extremely bad for Republicans compared to '08, and NC whites are not some monolithic entity of stereotypical NASCAR dads with confederate flag bumper stickers.

Is it totally unreasonable to think that Obama might be able to slightly improve on the Kerry 27% White vote?

No, assuming the GOP vote is lower than in 2004 .. Obama could get more than 27%, but that would be quite a feat. I would be surprised to see that. NC is a tale of two states. One state is the old southerners who do have the confederate flags flying and declare they'll never vote for a black man, and then there's the young crowd and the transplants from the Northeast who would.

I will stand by my prediction that NC will be GOP +8 this cycle, a 3% trend towards the Democrats from 2004. Obama will not win NC if he wins nationally by 6%, but it would be very close.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

A lot of those old threads made me laugh.