What's the deal with PA? (user search)
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  What's the deal with PA? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What's the deal with PA?  (Read 2715 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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Posts: 24,172


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

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« on: June 10, 2008, 02:14:17 PM »

Firstly, I'll take 'LOL' as meaning 'Lucid, Objective Logic' - which my post is, irrefutably (not that you bothered to try)

Oh, ok.  Roll Eyes  I deluded myself into thinking it's a tossup state. Yes, that's objective logic!

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You're comparing McCain's chances in PA to his chances in Connecticut and Maryland? Really? Wow. This is lucid logic. Amazing.

That statement is a little extreme. McCain does have a good chance to win PA, a much better one than he does in Maryland, NJ, Washington etc .. anyone who says otherwise needs to rethink their knowledge of the electorate. The big key to Pennsylvania will be where the Clinton supporters go. Many of the Democrats around here think they will go lockstep to Obama because Hillary endorsed him, but I doubt that will be the case. It will be interesting and a key to winning PA if they sit at home or come out and vote for McCain. I don't think they will be enthusiastic about Obama, especially as this process drags on and his unfavorables shoot up like McCain's will.

The problem, Phil, with this forums logic is that they try their best to keep all these Kerry states on Obama side. When polls were showing McCain leading, people still said it was lean Obama because of the war and the GOP's nationwide unpopularity. I believe three prediction maps switched on this site when McCain clearly was the favorite. When one poll came out with Obama ahead, those three maps and then 10 more switched back to Obama and the state became solid Obama in the minds of the posters because this "fluke" of McCain leading was over. They simply do not understand that Obama could be unpopular in some areas unless you are an uneducated, racist bigot. Just look at how they have demonized states like West Virginia, where they have dominated in the past few decades until recently.  Even if McCain does win Pennsylvania, people will still be in denial and cry foul when it's over. I do not want to be around if McCain wins the election on this forum. I can only imagine what will happen.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,172


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2008, 03:25:27 PM »

Right now PA and NC are polling the same, so if PA is a pure toss-up then NC is too.

*Edit* Of course I mean NC is polling 5% for McCain and PA is polling 5% for Obama.

For your sake, I hope NC goes to the Democrats in your lifetime. It seems to be your life dream.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,172


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2008, 03:42:52 PM »

Obama's going to have a cakewalk in the state during the general election compared to the primary. McCain can't muster the organization or the money to contest PA the way Clinton did (keep in mind that PA was by no means a landslide victory for Clinton)

McCain had a chance in 2000 when he was a maverick and a moderate. He's neither of those things anymore. He's been sucking up to the religious right and beating the conservative rhetoric drum non-stop through the primaries and he's shown no sign of meaningful change since he secured the nomination - which was 4 months ago, btw!

To call him a maverick is a joke. As much as I hate the cliche Obama is the 'change' candidate. He's the outsider. He's the breath of fresh air. McCain's been in Washington for 25 years. How exactly is he going to 'change' the place he's spent the last quarter century?

The problem is that the majority of the public still see McCain as the moderate and maverick in the race. Sure, people on here see him as Bush II, but when he's out attacking the administration on Katrina, campaigning on climate change and the like, it's hard to say he's a cookie cutter Bush II candidate, even if he has moved right recently.

Obama is no more of a "change" candidate as McCain is. He's spent his entire life in politics and is a product of the Chicago machine. He may be a Washington outsider, but he's hardly a new comer when it comes to politics. He's played the same dirty, corrupt political game that anyone else has played, and maybe even more so if you look at the guys he's connected with. McCain's spent his life fighting to "change" things, while Obama has spent his life voting with his party in just about everything. If anything, McCain has shown he has the ability and capacity to change things, while Obama seems to be hoping the Democrats can get a filibuster proof majority in the upcoming elections so he can push through his change agenda. How exactly will Obama "change" Washington when he hasn't changed anything in his life. At least McCain has a record of attempting to work across party lines for change. That can't be said about Obama. You can say "I am change" all you want, but it won't convince me that you are when your record says something totally different.

It's no more a joke to call McCain a maverick is to say Obama can actually bring change. Yes, McCain has been sucking up to the religious right because he knows he'll need their support in this election just like Obama sucked up to the far anti-war left and sucked up to people like Rezko, Wright and Aires when he was running for political office in Chicago. It would be foolish to alienate them if either wants to win.

You're also falling for this myth that McCain will be severely disadvantaged in fundraising and simply won't be able to compete, which is false. If you look at May's fundraising numbers, the RNC + McCain are even or slightly ahead of Obama + DNC. He'll have an advantage, but some of you and others are under the impression that he'll be able to advertise and stump in all 50 states and McCain won't be able to keep up. The GOP will have plenty to go around this cycle, which I guess will surprise a lot of you.

FWIW, I do believe Obama has the advantage in Pennsylvania at this moment, but in no way will he have a "cakewalk" come November.
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