Clemson Palmetto Poll-SC: Biden 35, Steyer 17, Sanders 13, Buttigieg 8, Warren 8

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Biden wins here by 10+ points. Sanders probably will finish ahead of Steyer, but this certainly won't be his best state.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't rule out an outcome along these lines in SC. Based on demographics and absentee voting that has been ongoing, it should be one of the very worst states for Bernie. On the other hand the question is if it really matters if Bernie is up by 15-20 or whatever in CA and doing fine elsewhere outside the deep south.

Biden could close the gap in CA if he wins SC by this much and starts to look viable in the eyes of those who want an alternative to Sanders.

Make no mistake, he won't win CA, but I don't think Sanders wins ALL of their delegates.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

0% chance Steyer comes in 2nd.

If the result looks like this, which we shouldn’t rule out because Clemson was the only pollster that got it right in 2016, then I don’t think Bernie will be the nominee.  It would signal that he’s getting shut out across the Deep South, making it really hard to even come close to racking up a majority of pledged delegates.

The only reason that was the case it because every poll underestimated Hillary's margin in 2016. That's like saying we should trust Trafalgar because they nailed Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016.

I don't think he will, but there is more than a 0% chance. He's made inroads amongst African Americans, far more than Sanders, and AAs make up 2/3 of the electorate here.

That said, I think Biden wins by 10-12% in the end.