I think NJ is pretty polarized, so I assume we'll see something along the same lines we've seen in the past 2 elections. I think 2000 was an exception to the rule.
It is. The difference is Ocean County and the R areas are growing while Essex County is shrinking.
Christie will be the first Republican to cross 50% statewide in a long time.
It could very well be trending R slightly compared to the nation, but I still think the GOP ceiling there is 47% or so in a presidential election, around what Bush got in 2004.
