DSCC Seems to be Playing with South Carolina (user search)
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  DSCC Seems to be Playing with South Carolina (search mode)
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Author Topic: DSCC Seems to be Playing with South Carolina  (Read 2017 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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E: -1.94, S: -3.13

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« on: August 02, 2009, 10:14:01 AM »

DeMint is probably safe here in 2010, especially since it appears as if it will be a Republican leaning cycle. The Democrats really have no one big on the bench to run, and DeMint, other than being a far-right loon sometimes, hasn't done anything that would cause him to lose reelection, especially if the Democrats do not run anyone worth noting. They have a much better chance at picking up the Governor's Mansion by capitalizing on Sanford's tactics, but even then they might be unsuccessful.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,197


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2009, 04:33:22 PM »

Obama only did so well in South Carolina because the African American turnout there was really high and he got a fair share of the white vote, although not nearly enough to carry the state. I think in order for Democrats to carry South Carolina (and all Southern states in general), they're going to have to do better among white voters but since they make up the base of the Republican Party (Southern whites), I don't see this happening anytime soon so I'd say DeMint is safe, unfortunately. The huge African American turnout won't be there in 2010 like it was in 2008 so that also adds to the probability that DeMint will retain his seat. Also, he was the #1 most conservative member of the U.S. Senate and was one of two who voted against Hillary's confirmation as Secretary of State (the other being Diaper David Vitter) - for that reason alone, he should go. Tongue

Statewide races are different than Presidential ones. Inez Tennembaum nearly won in 2004 over DeMint, while Bush carried the state by 18%. I'm not saying he will lose, but its not a cut and dry case that he wins handily. He's popular in the more conservative upstate, but here in the lowcountry, he isn't invisible. Of course, it depends on who the Democrats put up. Just because Obama did poorly with whites in SC doesn't mean that no Democrat can get 30% of them, it just means that Obama could not.
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