Would Kamala Harris crack 20% in WV?

[IceSpear]

It goes without saying that Trump would crack 70% against her (or perhaps anyone), but Trump cracking 80% seems like a bridge too far even against a black woman from California, so this seems like the most interesting question. What does Atlas think?

[IceSpear]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

It's certainly a given against a "coastal elitist" black woman who is not afraid to talk about race.

[IceSpear]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

Yes, he's essentially saying that either:

1) Kamala Harris cannot possibly do worse than Hillary overall

And/or

2) WV is guaranteed to trend D even with a black woman as the Democratic candidate

Both of these are extremely dubious assertions for obvious reasons. I shudder to even consider the percentage of the vote Kamala would get in Mingo County. We'd be approaching banana republic election numbers in Southern WV, except even scarier since they'd be genuine.

[IceSpear]

Literally any Democrat would crack 20% at least. It's not DC for Christ's sake; there is still a substantial ancestral Democratic population there that will NEVER vote Republican. Not enough to win a presidential race, but more than enough to keep a Democratic senator in power who was (mostly) running against the record of a historically popular Republican president there when combined with "swing voters."

Honestly, this question is just plain stupid. Even if Kamala is the absolute worst fit the Democrats could run for West Virginia, she would still easily surpass 20%.

You realize Hillary, who notably was not black, only got 26% of the vote, right? And more and more of those "ancestral Democrats" switch sides every day, both literally and figuratively.