Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[IceSpear]

im not calling the race but I was told that the D had this in the bag 1 hour ago when she was losing Kenosha by 5.(ik its -2 now)

It's Atlas. Every single election thread will be filled with D hacks being irrationally optimistic and R hack/troll LimoLiberal being irrationally pessimistic.

[IceSpear]

Tbf, Walker was tied with Evers with 90% in, IIRC.

But there aren't any Milwaukee absentees to drop this time, are there?

[IceSpear]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

[IceSpear]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

[IceSpear]

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

I think it's increasingly less true that Democrats need a lot of rural votes in Wisconsin, the way that Madison is growing and a lot of rural areas are shrinking. And you should know better than anyone why Democrats botched that race in WI-01 (not that it was really winnable.) I don't think it makes sense to call Wisconsin anything other than a Toss-Up, and while an argument could be made for Tilt D for Pennsylvania, I don't think that's a sure thing by any means, and will come down to many different things (the Democratic candidate, their strategy, their message, turnout, etc.) I'd be shocked if Pennsylvania voted more than 2-2.5% to the left of Wisconsin.

LOL yeah, I certainly know why they did worse than Hillary in WI-01, but that didn't stop the Atlas #populists from insisting I was an idiot, it was a toss up, and that it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Dems to lose by double digits and do worse than Hillary because #WWCpopulism or something.

It's true that Dems aren't as reliant on rurals in Wisconsin anymore, but they're still more dependent on them than they are in Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[IceSpear]

well that sucks

understatement of the year?

Unless you live in Wisconsin I don't see how it would merit any stronger of a reaction than that.

[IceSpear]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

Yeah guys, at least wait until 2020 to see if Trump carries it again before giving up on Wisconsin. We might need those 2 votes!

[IceSpear]

So how is this going to affect Solid's ratings now?

It'll be a real bombshell if he moves WI to lean D.

[IceSpear]

Favorability ratings of elected officials in new Marquette poll:

Evers: 49/35 (+14)
Baldwin: 44/40 (+4)
RonJon: 40/29 (+11)

Evers approval: 54/34 (+20)

Funny, you would've thought Evers'/Baldwin's victory margins were the opposite with those numbers.

[IceSpear]

Considering how insane and chaotic this election is, can we agree to autoban anyone who tries to use the Supreme Court results to extrapolate to anything?