Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)

[IceSpear]

And so it begins.

[IceSpear]

And before anyone says "But Emerson's final poll in 2018 was accurate!", that's what we call "saving face." Unless you seriously believe there was a 12 point swing in the final 3 weeks of the election for literally no reason.

[IceSpear]

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.

Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.

[IceSpear]

Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.

Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   Rosen 49   Heller 45   Rosen +4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46   clinton 47   johnson 4   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   41   48   Heller +7

If the election was in 2 days, maybe you'd have a case to make.

During the race people change their minds.

Literally nothing happened in the final 3 weeks of the Nevada Senate race to change any minds, let alone that many. Occam's Razor says the poll was simply way off, as most Nevada polls tend to be (see post #26.)