I guess I'll go by Atlas standards, since there hasn't really been enough to judge from pundit "conventional wisdom" yet.
Overrated:Jones (He has zero chance and
only won because his opponent was a pedophile)
Roberts (An old fossil who struggled to win in a red wave year in a D trending state is not safe, but leave it to Atlas to think he's less likely to lose than McConnell)
Peters (Peters is mediocre and only won in a landslide because his opponent imploded, and Stabenow just underperformed the generic ballot numbers significantly)
Cornyn (Yes, he's less controversial than Cruz, but he's also a total nonentity, which is rarely a good thing)
Underrated:Sullivan (Some think this could be competitive, but it won't be)
Gardner (He will likely lose, but the race is not safe D this early)
Ernst (As you said, people will way underestimate her #populism
and folksiness and what the hell ever, as well as Iowa's Republican trend)
McConnell (It's getting like Charlie Brown and Lucy at this point. The idea that Dems could knock off McConnell at the same time Trump is carrying the state by 30+ points is comical)
Collins (She's definitely more vulnerable than she has been in the past, but that's not saying much. Atlas D hacks already writing her obituary need to check themselves)
Hyde-Smith (She has zero chance of losing a primary or a general)
Warner (Just because some people actually think it isn't safe D)
Most of the underrated are Republicans since this site is filled with D hacks, but that could change once we get some spicy hot takes from the pundits, like when they told me Shalala, Lamb, Wexton, and Rosen were in toss up races.
