AMA - IceSpear

[IceSpear]

Why not.

[IceSpear]

Guy Benson, Adam Kinzinger, Josh Hawley, or Aaron Schock?

Are we talking FMK here? Marriage? FWB? One night stand? Am I taking into account their politics/personality too or just their looks?

[IceSpear]

Guy Benson, Adam Kinzinger, Josh Hawley, or Aaron Schock?

Are we talking FMK here? Marriage? FWB? One night stand? Am I taking into account their politics/personality too or just their looks?

You decide. Are their politics even that different?

Aaron Schock is the most attractive, so I'll pick him for the one night stand. But he's a literal criminal and also I get bad vibes from him in general, so I'll go no further there.

Adam Kinzinger is also very attractive and seems like the best marriage material. So if I had to pick one for whatever this question is, I guess him, lol.

Josh Hawley is hot (the only upside to him beating Air Claire is new Senate eye candy) but I would always resent him for beating my queen. I'd like to take that frustration out on him in the bedroom though.

I don't know much about Benson but he's cute too.

[IceSpear]

I'll piggyback off MT Treasurer's question, but go for the daddy pols: Martin O'Malley, Beto O'Rourke, Thom Tillis, or John Thune?

Damn it, I STILL DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT I'M SUPPOSED TO BE CHOOSING.

M O'Rourke, F O'Malley/Thune, K Tillis.

[IceSpear]

who's your fav leftwing politician right now?!

Do you think climate change will ever be taken seriously by the politically establishment in the US?

"Left wing" is in the eye of beholder, especially on this forum, lol. But in terms of people I'd like to be president, I like Gillibrand, Harris, and O'Rourke. In terms of newly elected, I like Newsom and Whitmer.

Probably not until it's too late.

[IceSpear]

At what point in life did you develop your enthusiasm for Hillary, and why?

What percentage of your atlas posts are trolling (i.e. not serious)?

If a Democratic President was elected in 2016, would you have preferred they renominate Garland or that they picked a "real liberal"?

Luckily I already have a saved PM from someone else who asked me this:

I've liked Hillary since 2008, which is when I first started being a political junkie. I vaguely supported Kerry in 2004, but I didn't really know much about politics then, so it was basically just based off a clueless "Kerry is against Bush and Bush is dumb" thing. Since Hillary was the first presidential candidate I ever suppported, I guess it's sort of an emotional connection, probably the same way a lot of other Democrats my age feel about Obama. I also pretty much gave up all hope she'd ever be president after she lost the primary in 2008, so once she started to emerge again in 2013 as a legitimate contender (and nearly a lock to win the Democratic nomination), I became enthusiastic for her again.

As for policies, I've always admired her passion for healthcare reform. Even though Clinton's healthcare plan ended up failing, I was impressed she had the guts to advocate for and have an instrumental role in crafting such an important bill despite the extreme difficulty. I've also always admired her advocacy for women's rights, and I especially liked her 1995 UN speech ("women's rights are human rights"). As for her ideology in general, I've found her to be a pretty good match for me. A standard liberal, but not far out in True Leftist land, though she's probably a bit to the right of me on issues like foreign policy. I supported her in 2008 because I felt she would be better able to navigate DC and get her agenda passed than Obama would, who at times can seem aloof. And I also thought she did a great job at SoS. Yeah, she didn't bring about world peace, but extremely consequential SoSs are the exception, not the norm. She worked very hard and I believe she improved our reputation abroad, and was an important part of many international negotiations and the Obama administration's Asian pivot. And just in general, I really admire her tenacity. Despite all the roadblocks in her way (failure of healthcare reform, Lewinsky, losing the primary in '08, etc.) she just keeps getting up and fighting again, and I think that's really what the Democratic Party needs right now, not more aloofness and detachment.

I'd say roughly 50% are either trolling and/or purposefully being excessively hyperbolic. This can vary depending on the day though.

A real liberal, because the GOP wouldn't deserve a centrist consensus choice like Garland after the the disgusting stunt they pulled.

[IceSpear]

- Why do you think West Virginia should vote Democratic if they were voting on economic reasons, I mean WV was controlled by Dems for more than 80 years up to 2014 so if any party deserves the blame for WV its the Dems not the GOP.

- Ronald Reagan or Robert Byrd(1980s Version)

Well for one thing, federal policies tend to have a bigger impact on individual states than the state's policies do. With that said, WV's problems are/were largely unavoidable regardless of who was/is in control, but that doesn't change the fact that they'd be better off with an expanded social safety net, which is what the Democrats support and the GOP opposes.

With or without hindsight?

[IceSpear]

Will WV ever again vote for a dem statewide within the 21st century?

In the entire 21st century? Probably. 80 years is a lot of time for a massive fluke to potentially occur.

[IceSpear]

When will I become a Democrat?

Approximately 19 months.

[IceSpear]

- Why do you think West Virginia should vote Democratic if they were voting on economic reasons, I mean WV was controlled by Dems for more than 80 years up to 2014 so if any party deserves the blame for WV its the Dems not the GOP.

- Ronald Reagan or Robert Byrd(1980s Version)

Well for one thing, federal policies tend to have a bigger impact on individual states than the state's policies do. With that said, WV's problems are/were largely unavoidable regardless of who was/is in control, but that doesn't change the fact that they'd be better off with an expanded social safety net, which is what the Democrats support and the GOP opposes.

With or without hindsight?

- Both with and without hindsight

- To be fair I can concede some of GOP policies wouldnt work in WV , but I think they need to implement a tax and regulatory structure which is as business-friendly as Texas and the Federal Government in return does an infrastructure project there. That I believe would help. The problem with the Dems is they dont wanna do that and plus they are anti coal as well so that makes their economic policies a negative for that state

Byrd with hindsight, who repented for his past and basically became a generic D in his final decades, along with the fact that I now see Reagan's destructive legacy. It's hard to mentally place myself in the 80s, but I definitely wouldn't have supported the KKK member who filibustered the Civil Rights Act. So Reagan.

[IceSpear]

How would you feel if the DC Suburbs spilled into Eastern WV and made WV a swing state?

I'd feel the same way I currently feel about Virginia. A state full of Racist Hicks that are thankfully outvoted by the highly educated booming region of the state.

[IceSpear]

If you could choose one state to do retail politics in (with 5 or less EV, cuz that’s where retail politics is most effective), which one would it be?

Montana obviously. Lots of beautiful sights, I could visit all 100 people that live in the state and convince them to vote for me (including you, Steve Bullock, and Jon Tester, might want to avoid Gianforte though), and I could finally see Garfield County and convince all the local #populists to support me with doorknocks and handshakes. I'd need to get a flat top first though...

[IceSpear]

- Why do you think West Virginia should vote Democratic if they were voting on economic reasons, I mean WV was controlled by Dems for more than 80 years up to 2014 so if any party deserves the blame for WV its the Dems not the GOP.

- Ronald Reagan or Robert Byrd(1980s Version)

Well for one thing, federal policies tend to have a bigger impact on individual states than the state's policies do. With that said, WV's problems are/were largely unavoidable regardless of who was/is in control, but that doesn't change the fact that they'd be better off with an expanded social safety net, which is what the Democrats support and the GOP opposes.

With or without hindsight?

- Both with and without hindsight

- To be fair I can concede some of GOP policies wouldnt work in WV , but I think they need to implement a tax and regulatory structure which is as business-friendly as Texas and the Federal Government in return does an infrastructure project there. That I believe would help. The problem with the Dems is they dont wanna do that and plus they are anti coal as well so that makes their economic policies a negative for that state

Byrd with hindsight, who repented for his past and basically became a generic D in his final decades, along with the fact that I now see Reagan's destructive legacy. It's hard to mentally place myself in the 80s, but I definitely wouldn't have supported the KKK member who filibustered the Civil Rights Act. So Reagan.

Last Question:


- What would be your opinion of Pre 2008 Orange County, and the Suburbs during the 1980s

I had no strong opinion on Orange County. To the extent I thought of it, it was as a bunch of delusional RINO Toms who are Democrats at heart that disagree with the GOP on mostly everything but still vote them because they wanted more tax cuts.

[IceSpear]

Favorite #populist ?

Jason Kander and Conor Lamb

[IceSpear]

Would you rather live in Oklahoma or West Virginia?

Option 3: Bullet in the head

But I guess West Virginia if forced to choose. It has a lot of natural beauty if you avoid the locals, unlike the flat desolate tornado prone hellscape that is Oklahoma. Plus I'd be much closer to my family/old friends.

[IceSpear]

Booth Goodwin or Carte Goodwin?

I don't know much about either of them, but Booth prosecuted Blankenship and also ran against POS Jim Justice, so he sounds like a massive FF to me.

[IceSpear]

What are your thoughts about the midterm results in the Senate? What do you think about the underperformance of virtually every Senate nominee on the ballot this year, with a few notable exceptions? How severe will the urban/rural divide become?

I'm relatively satisfied with R+2. I wish we could've held Florida and made it R+1 instead, but it could've been much worse, so overall I'm fine with it.

The underperformance doesn't surprise me. Polarization is a hell of a drug. I think the urban/rural divide is only going to continue growing for the forseeable future.

[IceSpear]

Opinion of the new U.S.A.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement?

No opinion. Of all the "major issues", trade has always been the one I'm least interested/invested in.

[IceSpear]

What type of republican would appeal to you as a candidate, even if you wouldn't vote for them?

Massive RINOs who could easily pass as Democrats like Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, Knute Buehler, Lisa Murkowski, Charlie Dent, Pearl Kim, RINO Tom, etc.

If you want a more realistic answer, then a Republican who is socially moderate and legitimately fiscally responsible. As in doesn't support irresponsible deficit busting tax cuts and isn't so far off in Ayn Rand land that they oppose reasonable policies like Medicaid expansion.

I did vote for a relatively moderate/sane Republican for the PA state Senate in 2014, but only because his Democratic opponent was a hot mess lying deadbeat dad like Joe Walsh/Randy Bryce. He won in 2014, but lost by 8 points this time. That was the only time I've ever voted Republican. But I likely would have voted for Baker and Scott this year if I lived in MA/VT, and I would've voted for Murkowski in 2016 if I lived in AK.

[IceSpear]

Assuming Sherrod Brown is not the Nominee, should Dems try to win Ohio in 2020? Yes it's trending R, but no one has won the election without it in 60 years.

No, it's a waste of time and money. Ohio might flip in a Democratic tsunami, but by then it's just gravy anyway. It will be nowhere in the tipping point vicinity.

[IceSpear]

- Kasich or Bernie in 2016

Kasich would definitely bring the GOP back in the right direction (from my perspective, which is an irrelevant perspective considering I'm a liberal Democrat) but he's too conservative for me, so Bernie. Even if Bernie did turn out to be the insane communist a lot of people think he is (which I am skeptical of considering how many decades he's been working within the system), Congress would act as a check on him anyway.

[IceSpear]

What type of republican would appeal to you as a candidate, even if you wouldn't vote for them?

Massive RINOs who could easily pass as Democrats like Charlie Baker, Phil Scott, Knute Buehler, Lisa Murkowski, Charlie Dent, Pearl Kim, RINO Tom, etc.

If you want a more realistic answer, then a Republican who is socially moderate and legitimately fiscally responsible. As in doesn't support irresponsible deficit busting tax cuts and isn't so far off in Ayn Rand land that they oppose reasonable policies like Medicaid expansion.

I did vote for a relatively moderate/sane Republican for the PA state Senate in 2014, but only because his Democratic opponent was a hot mess lying deadbeat dad like Joe Walsh/Randy Bryce. He won in 2014, but lost by 8 points this time. That was the only time I've ever voted Republican. But I likely would have voted for Baker and Scott this year if I lived in MA/VT, and I would've voted for Murkowski in 2016 if I lived in AK.

Makes sense. Charlie Baker and Phil Scott definitely seem like the type of Repubs who'd get a decent amount of Dem support.

Thoughts on Larry Hogan?

I don't know much about him honestly. My interpretation is that he hasn't been a strident conservative but also hasn't been an overt RINO either. Is that accurate?

[IceSpear]

Upon seeing this, what was your reaction?

My reaction is that it's very Bagel.

[IceSpear]

why did Kim get btfo so bad? she lost by way more than trump in the special, and lost by the same as him in the normal ge.

Performing on par with Trump isn't really that bad of a result during a Democratic wave environment in an inner ring suburban district. Just look at PA-06 where the Republican candidate did like 20 points worse than Trump, or PA-07 where the Republican candidate did like 10 points worse than Trump, or PA-17 where the INCUMBENT Republican candidate did like 15 points worse than Trump.

Kim was about as good of a fit for the district as you can get for a Republican, but ultimately she fell victim to the same suburban trends that were present all across the country. A lot of these areas were just in no mood to vote for Republicans. Kim was mostly just a random lady, she didn't have her own brand and recognizable family name like Fitzpatrick did, and she lacked the financial resources to make one for herself, since obviously no Republican big money groups were going to go tilting at windmills in a Clinton +30 district during a Trump midterm, lol. The implosion of Wagner and Barletta at the top of the ticket certainly didn't help matters either.

[IceSpear]

Which states do you think are trending towards the Republicans? Are Democrats done for in Appalachia and the Interior West? And what do the results in Colorado say about Cory Gardner's chances at winning reelection in 2020?

Democrats are definitely screwed in Appalachia. Every year we hear how an amazing Democratic candidate will make headway there (Mark Warner, Jack Conway, Ted Strickland, Richard Ojeda) only for them to get BTFO. They even turned against Good Ol Boy Joe Manchin in favor of a fatass toxic carpetbagger because he had an (R) next to his name and the God Emperor told them to! He had to make up for the losses there in the "urban" areas of the state, lol.

I think Gardner is screwed unless 2020 is a Republican wave and/or he gets a godawful scandal ridden opponent.