KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[IceSpear]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

[IceSpear]

Pat Roberts was held to a 10 point win during a red wave by Goofy Greg in a state that is now trending D.

My early bold prediction: Keep an eye on this one. At the very least, it is more likely to go D than shiny objects like Alabama and Kentucky.

I actually agree with assessment. KS has been consistently trending D for the past 2 decades(albeit, very, very, slowly), but with the coalition Kelly was able to get, having high turnout in the cities and getting those suburbs on your side, it is possible. But still, this starts at likely R until further notice.

Agreed. A lot of things will have to fall into place just right for Dems to have a chance here, but it's not inconceivable.

It's pretty obvious that Pat Roberts would've been in deep trouble if he was up for re-election in 2018.

[IceSpear]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

Agreed. Why not? He won't get a chance at governor until at least 2026, and I doubt he (or any Dem) would have a chance against Moran.

[IceSpear]

Josh Savaty needs to run.

Agreed. Why not? He won't get a chance at governor until at least 2026, and I doubt he (or any Dem) would have a chance against Moran.

he has Conor lamb potential.

And Pat Roberts definitely has Rick Saccone potential. In fact, he basically was Rick Saccone in 2014...except it was a red wave rather than a blue wave.

[IceSpear]

Too bad. Dems probably needed a trash-tier candidate like Roberts to have long shot potential here.

Kobach tells NYT he's considering.

Wow, right on cue! He really wants to keep hope alive for the Dems in this race!

[IceSpear]

I think Kobach will be elected if he's the nominee.  Trump will probably win the state by 20 points again, and senate races are almost always more partisan than gubernatorial races.  There might be a bit more ticket splitting than usual, but enough to pull the Dem across?  Seems very unlikely to me.

It seems unlikely to me that Trump will carry KS by 20+ points again. Johnson County is likely to swing against him, perhaps significantly, and he's already mostly maxed out in rural KS.

With that said, I concur with your overall point. However, if anyone can pull it off, it's Kobach. This is the guy that just managed to get thumped with a mere 43% of the vote despite having the (R) next to his name in KANSAS a mere 8 months ago. It might not be a toss up, but I think his nomination would certainly make it competitive, assuming Dems can find a decent candidate.

[IceSpear]

A Trump endorsement of Marshall would likely seal Kobach's fate, and by extension the Democrats' chances of winning this seat. But Trump adores Kobach, so who knows what he'll do.