FL: PPP: GILLUM +5

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

[IceSpear]

It's late August 2018.

Check back with me in mid-September.

Hillary was leading Trump in August 2016. Trump was leading in September.

Still tossup.

You could basically say this about any poll ever

Yes...you could. All polls this early should be viewed with the knowledge that things can, do, and likely will change. There's plenty of factors to evaluate a race on aside from what the polls are saying two months in advance. Most of this forum was circlejerking about Hillary winning in a double digit 400+ EV landslide because of early polls, despite the fact that the fundamentals of our extremely polarized country pointed to at least a somewhat competitive race. People never seem to learn this lesson though, and continue to be absolutely stunned every election that most of the August polls (and even worse, 6 months/1 year/2 years in advance polls) weren't accurate in the end.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

Dunleavy +10 is a single poll in August, and you treat it as gospel.

Not really. Dunleavy has had decent sized leads in every single one of the last four polls. In terms of fundamentals, Alaska is a very Republican state. And it's simply common sense that of course the de facto Democratic candidate from 2014 and the current Democratic candidate are going to split the left leaning vote in what is already a Republican state to begin with, which further boosts Dunleavy's chances.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and RubioRepublican told me Gillum can't win though

Atlas just got so much egg on its face.

You must be pretty bad at math if you think 30% = 0%.

Anyway, the level of football spiking in this thread over a single August poll is insane. From reading this thread you'd think Gillum just won the actual election by double digits. I'll admit he's doing better than I suspected he would in this poll, but again, it's a single poll. In August. You all need to chill out, the hackery here is reaching insane and unprecedented levels.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it should be DeSantis overpreforming at this point, not Gillum. In wave years, the party in opposition, the Dems, should see a shift from undecideds after labour day. It happened in 2010, 2006, 2008 and 2014. What most people are freaking out about, and rightfully so, is that Gillum has a modest lead in an independent poll from a B pollster before Labour day. Thats pretty big.

Well, two things. For one, this is only a single data point. We'll need to see what other pollsters find (assuming they're not junk polls, which admittedly is a big ask these days.) Secondly, polls taken immediately after a primary frequently give wonky results. Off the top of my head, Creigh Deeds was actually leading in a poll in 2009 taken immediately after the primary which caused Dem hacks to start popping the champagne, and we all know how that turned out.