PA 2018: Wolf vs Wagner

[IceSpear]

Not sure that I see voters being on the Governor's side. I mean we all saw what happened in PA during 2016. Wagner really appeals to the Trump base and blue collar workers so I think turnout will be down for both parties. Wolf hasn't really done much to distinguish himself and is vulnerable. However, Fetterman seems to be the true wildcard.

Welcome to the politics of Pennsylvania! You clearly haven't paid attention long enough. PA does not oust incumbents unless they're immensely unpopular, e.g.: Tom Corbett and Rick Santorum. I don't see how Scott Wagner has any more appeal to the PA blue collar workers than Mitt Romney did. I also don't understand what makes you think Wagner even has a chance to compete with the blue collar vote against Fetterman. Not distinguishing yourself is not going to cause you to lose In Pennsylvania, especially if you're an Incumbent D.

Speaking of which, what was it that Corbett did that made him so unpopular? I didn't follow politics back then and especially not PA politics.

Cuts to education and mishandling the Penn State scandal when he was AG.

[IceSpear]

Based on approval ratings, Wolf isn't as popular as you would think. PA lost many jobs and the same coalition that delivered Trump a victory may come out again.

Trump won by 0.7% in a far better environment, and only because of Comey.

[IceSpear]

Wolf will win easily. He has a decent approval rating in a D friendly year and is running against a mediocre opponent. The margin will be interesting though. One thing the Republicans have going for them is that his opponent doesn't have a 25% approval rating like Corbett did in 2014. I think he'll win by roughly the same margin, though with a very different map.

[IceSpear]

WOW, did y'all know that Tom Wolf is filthy rich?! I just found out since I saw an ad saying he had a cabinet company and is a businessman, so I looked up his net worth, and he is rolling in dough. I have heard of him for like 4 years, and I never would have suspected it because he is really a down to earth and humble great man, can't wait for him to win a second term!

Wolf's wealth is how he won the 2014 primary in a landslide. He blitzed the state with ads and Schwartz/McCord were done before they even knew what hit them.

[IceSpear]

It's almost like Wagner is trying to do as bad as possible. I mean, he'll still get like 30-35% because the core GOP-Trumpers will stick with him no matter what, esp after these ridiculous comments. But man he's gotta be pushing away every Indie and Moderate out there. At this point, knock on wood, I would not be surprised to see Wolf hit 60%+. Wagner is just a straight up disaster.

Still have not seen a single ad on TV for him (I guess bc he's broke) and in my suburban Montgomery County town, while there are lawn signs out for the Republican State Senate candidates, there is no signs to be found for Wagner or Barletta.

Yeah, there's a lot of local Republican support in Delco as well, virtually nothing for Wagner or Barletta. It's gonna be a burbstompin.

[IceSpear]

Early swing map. A true burbstomping! Beautiful map!

[IceSpear]

The margins for Wolf in the suburbs are eye-popping. Seeing him at nearly 70% in my home county (Montco) is amazing.

Wolf winning Cumberland County was also amazing to see. Even Santorum and Corbett landslided there. He even came close in Lancaster County!

The times, they are a changin.

[IceSpear]

I know this is thinking way ahead, but hopefully we have a Senator Wolf in 2024.

You mean 2022?

Wolf is kind of old, so I'm not sure if he'd be interested or not. But of course he'd be an excellent candidate against Toomey. Incumbent governors like Hassan, Scott, etc. seem to do way better than old washed up former governors like Bredesen, Lingle, Bayh, Kerrey, Pawlenty, Thompson, Strickland, etc.

Though how vulnerable Toomey ends up being probably depends on 2020. If Trump wins, he could very well be DOA. If Trump loses, he'll probably be favored.