Unfortunately for the Dems jerking off about the Arpaio numbers, his "campaign" has been a total joke and he basically has a next to zero chance of winning the primary.
On the bright side, he'll probably continue bleeding support to Ward over the next few months, who is a much weaker opponent than McSally.
Or the Class III seat opens up and one of Ward or Arpaio switch to that race. Which would probably seal McSally's fate in the primary. Regardless, I think this race is still Leans D with McSally. She's pretty overrated by the same "experts" who think Rick Scott and Dean Heller make their respective Senate races tossups.
McSally is overrated but I'm not sure anyone could match Heller's level. Literally beat some corrupt lady under ethics investigation that looks like a wax figure with a bad wig on by a massive 1 point with 46% of the vote. Meanwhile Dems are winning in Alabama and R+11 districts, but clearly it's a toss up because MUH INCUMBENCY and something something unions!