KY-GOV 2019: Is Matt Bevin in big trouble?

[IceSpear]

No.

[IceSpear]

Ugh, are we really going to have to go through another few years of Democrats pretending they have a shot at beating Mitch McConnell?

I guess Bevin easily winning re-election will dispel with that fiction though.

[IceSpear]

Ugh, are we really going to have to go through another few years of Democrats pretending they have a shot at beating Mitch McConnell?

I guess Bevin easily winning re-election will dispel with that fiction though.

Ah yes, Matt Bevin the famous tactician. He understands the complete drought of downballot democratic support, the overwhelmingly republican national environment, the lack of anyone who could be remotely angry at his antics over Medicaid and the teachers strikes, the extremely weak democratic bench with no row officers who could challenge him, and most crucially garnering one of the highest approval ratings in the country.


In fact, he's such a strong candidate that he'll win Louisville by 20 points, Lexington by 50 points, and anyone who dislikes him in rural areas will be immediately executed.


Anyone who doesn't see this is a complete imbecile, a ing moron. I applaud you for your unbiased, clearheaded analysis of the situation.

Bevin sucks, but he also sucked in 2015, and that didn't stop him from curbstomping Jack Conway (who everyone here thought would win easily.)

This state is extremely hostile to any Democrat now. Beshear and Grimes only won by the skin of their teeth to begin with. Yeah, Dems will probably do well in the Louisville and Lexington areas. That earned Jim Gray a 14 point loss. Sounds about right.

[IceSpear]

Ugh, are we really going to have to go through another few years of Democrats pretending they have a shot at beating Mitch McConnell?

I guess Bevin easily winning re-election will dispel with that fiction though.

Ah yes, Matt Bevin the famous tactician. He understands the complete drought of downballot democratic support, the overwhelmingly republican national environment, the lack of anyone who could be remotely angry at his antics over Medicaid and the teachers strikes, the extremely weak democratic bench with no row officers who could challenge him, and most crucially garnering one of the highest approval ratings in the country.


In fact, he's such a strong candidate that he'll win Louisville by 20 points, Lexington by 50 points, and anyone who dislikes him in rural areas will be immediately executed.


Anyone who doesn't see this is a complete imbecile, a ing moron. I applaud you for your unbiased, clearheaded analysis of the situation.

Bevin sucks, but he also sucked in 2015, and that didn't stop him from curbstomping Jack Conway (who everyone here thought would win easily.)

This state is extremely hostile to any Democrat now. Beshear and Grimes only won by the skin of their teeth to begin with. Yeah, Dems will probably do well in the Louisville and Lexington areas. That earned Jim Gray a 14 point loss. Sounds about right.

2014,2015, and 2016 were hard times for the KY Ds. This was at the end of the Obama era, and he had some of his weakest approvals at this point. But this is the Trump era, and KY special elections have shown a strong D trend. Its also important to note that unpopular govs can drag on a state party, just ask MO and CT.
Environment is one of the most important factors in elections and one that many are willing to brush aside and forget about. The environment back then was anti-Obama, Democratic Establishment, Coastal Elite. Now its anti-Trump.

The environment overall is anti-Trump, but his approval rating is still high in Kentucky. So I definitely wouldn't count on any kind of anti-Trump tide carrying a Democrat to victory there.

As for McConnell, he won by a comfortable margin even when there was an incumbent Republican president with a -30 approval rating in the state per the 2008 exit poll. And this was when his opponent was dominating in Appalachia too, which will obviously never happen now. So...good luck with that one.

[IceSpear]

By your logic, both Richard Ojeda and Manchin are screwed because Trump has high approval there

I see you're new here. Trust me, you don't want to get me started on WV, LOL.

You make good points on the enthusiasm gap, but there is no reason at this point to believe that 2019/2020 will be as good of a year for Dems as 2018 is shaping up to be. Especially 2020, where Trump will be at the top of the ticket and will be winning KY by at least 20 points even if he's getting BTFO nationally. So any enthusiasm gap will be far less relevant. Republicans will turn out for Trump and check their ballot for McConnell in the process, even though he's toxic. He was also toxic in 2014, but the wave and Kentucky's intense partisanship gave him a landslide re-election. He might not have the wave in 2020, but he'll certainly still have the latter, along with Trump's help.

I doubt he retires. The turtle is already plotting about how to eviscerate anyone that runs against him like he did to Bevin and Grimes.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/15/mitch-mcconnell-2020-reelection-campaign-647081

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/GovMattBevin/status/1016714234095374337

Bevin continues to be the worst statewide office holder in the country. I hope Beshear kicks his ass five ways to Sunday

As we all know, racism is anathema to Kentucky voters. Everyone in NYC is sure of it.

[IceSpear]

Also, most of Kentucky's population isn't even in Appalachia. The cities are growing, and the rural counties are shrinking.

lol

Demographics are destiny, Kentucky will soon be safe D, as foretold by Bandit.