What did Ed Gillespie do wrong and what did Ralph Northam do right?

[IceSpear]

Gillespie was in the wrong place (blue-leaning Virginia), at the wrong time (Trump's presidency) and with a wrong program (running TO Trump, not FROM him).....

This. Northam didn't do much wrong or right, despite the bedwetting. He was just generic D with the perk of having a slight boost on the Eastern Shore.

[IceSpear]

Ed's approach of "Trumpism without Trump" was a flop. Virginia is a state that Trump lost by nearly 6 points against Clinton. Whatever made him think that Trump voters could propel him to victory in Virginia is beyond me.

He was banking on:

1) Higher turnout among Trump voters than Clinton voters, which would've been a pretty good bet in the past.

2) Presenting himself as a Trump acolyte to Trump voters, but a McDonnell-esque "establishment moderate" to NoVa, and hoping that neither side would notice (or at least not care.)

[IceSpear]

What Gillespie did wrong: Ran a campaign as a Republican during a D friendly cycle.
What Northam did right: Ran a campaign as a Democrat during a D friendly cycle.

Clearly there's more to it than that; but the reality is what the political mood is matters a lot in a toss-up style race.

Atlas tends to vastly underrate fundamentals like a state's lean and the overall political environment and overrate candidate quality and campaigns.