Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[IceSpear]

Gallup (10/15/2017)

Approve: 36% (-2)
Disapprove: 59% (+3)

Who knew screwing with people's healthcare wasn't popular...

Eh, don't read too much into daily tracker fluctuations.  If it stays down at that level for a few days, then you're probably right.

Yeah, paying attention to daily or even weekly swings here is totally pointless. The big picture is that his approval/disapproval score is staying in a very narrow range, which isn't surprising due to how polarized the country is. I doubt he'd fall below 35% after eating babies on live TV, or rise above 50% after curing cancer. There's always the possibility of a black swan event though. God help us if Trump sees he's losing in the polls and nukes North Korea a few weeks before the 2020 election.

[IceSpear]

Washington Post/ University of Maryland (National Poll)

Approve: 37
Disapprove: 63

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/28/National-Politics/Polling/release_497.xml?tid=a_inl

I initially read that as Maryland only, and was surprised it was so high. lol

[IceSpear]

Given numbers like these, I can easily understand why Trump is so eager to go to war with North Korea (and maybe Iran too for good measure), and get that rally-'round-the-flag effect in the polls. 

The thing is, that effect tends to drop off as time goes on. Electorally, it would be smartest for him to start one war in October 2018 and another war in October 2020.

[IceSpear]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

His victory was hardly assured. It came down to a close margin in a single swing state. Compare that to his 60-70% approvals for the few months immediately after Iraq.

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

[IceSpear]

51/42 think he's mentally unbalanced.

But Trump's a 50/50 shot to win re-election guys

I mean, that number really isn't that bad. It shows he has 42% of the vote already, and then of course at least a few more percent will rationalize that <insert any Democrat here> is somehow worse. Plus his numbers could improve overall (and on that particular question) over the next 3 years. That's an eternity in politics. Hillary went from like a 70-30 favorability to 40-60 in that timeframe.

No that's stupid. You don't have to think someone is mentally unbalanced to not support them. Trump's approval rating is 20% less than his disapproval rating-that's a hard gap to close. A lot of people are disappointed that he has abandoned his populist agenda to go for gutting Obamacare and tax cuts for the rich. Many people could be reluctant to outright call him mentally unbalanced(though may still have doubts about his judgement and stability) but still oppose him. That 42% is meaningless, the 51% is not a ceiling to Trump opposition but more likely a floor. You do have a point that the numbers could change, but of course they could also go down further. Maybe by 2020 we'll have a Democratic Congress and President Pence, or maybe Trump's approval will be 45-50%, or maybe Trump will be at a 30% approval rating and not running for re-election, or maybe something else. What we do know is right now 51% think he is mentally unstable, and that's bad for an incumbent President(Obama, Bush, Clinton wouldn't have had those numbers).

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Saying someone is mentally unbalanced is a pretty extreme thing to say, I'm pretty surprised 51% of the country thinks he's mentally unbalanced when it seems like a left-wing belief but less believable for many swing voters. If 51% think he's unbalanced, and likely more are concerned or disapprove of him elsewhere, then the crop of swing voters is on whether Trump gets to 40% not 45% or 50%. And Trump only overcame his unfavorables because Clinton had a -14% favorability rating. He won the people who disliked both him and Clinton, and probably them because of the Comey letter. The Democrats will probably nominate a better candidate next time so then he will be in deep trouble.

I guess that's where we disagree. I think most of the people who saw him and Clinton unfavorably (and, oh so coincidentally, broke massively in his favor) will also see any Democrat unfavorably after they are subjected to a year+ long smear campaign, then they will yet again rationalize a reason to pull the lever for Trump.

Not that the mentally unbalanced question is good for him. Obviously if it's accurate and the election was held today he'd lose, possibly by a decent margin. Just that it isn't as bad as it might look at first glance when you actually delve into the numbers, especially when you consider that these days "undecided/don't know" tends to mean "embarrassed Trump supporter."

[IceSpear]

If someone says Trump isn't mentally unbalanced, they're clearly primed to rationalize a reason to vote for him the second they get the chance to do so. Questions like that are actually more telling than straight approval/disapproval or straight favorable/unfavorable. Remember, he had a 38-60 favorability rating in the 2016 exit poll and still got 46% of the vote.

Because he was running against someone with 41/54 favourable/unfavourable on the day of the election, which is not much better. Swing voters had an unfavourable view of both Clinton and Trump, so why would you have expected them to vote against the latter? The voters you're talking about "rationalised" a vote for Trump because his opponent had been under investigation by the FBI...

41-54 is actually quite a bit better than 38-60. And why would you "expect them" to vote for Trump either then? Yet they did. And a lot of them weren't "swing voters", they were embarrassed/shy Trump supporters.

As for Obama, he had the media on his side. Hillary didn't. Only time will tell if whoever ends up being the nominee in 2020 does or doesn't.

[IceSpear]

Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

The current average has him at 38-57 nationally, and his rating in VA is no doubt more than 2 points less than nationally. 38-57 is using many polls that poll all adults though, so if you adjust for likely voters it's probably more like 43-55, which tracks well with the fact that he got 46% of the vote and very few of those 46% have abandoned him.

[IceSpear]

Trump's low approval rating masks his support among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos poll

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I'm psychic

But really, this is why it's insane to think a strong third party run would help Democrats. His ~45% is going to stick with him come hell or high water. Third parties would do nothing but divide the anti-Trump vote and potentially cause a 2016 redux.

[IceSpear]

Colorado

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http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/coloradans-increasingly-displeased-with-president-trump-poll-finds

https://mediaassets.thedenverchannel.com/document/2017/11/29/Keating%20Colorado%20Poll%20November%202017%20XTABS%20Part%20One%20-%20For%20Release_72983933_ver1.0.pdf?_ga=2.251906825.1467516554.1512000768-1705114113.1512000768

Holy mother of bloodbath, 66%!

Trump better hope Hillary runs again so CO can maintain its safe R status.

#2014AtlasThrowbacks

[IceSpear]

I would have thought the tax bill would have helped him but he's been nosediving on RCP. He's lost two points in the last week or so.

Nothing will ever help Trump improve.

Eh. He was at 62% disapproval almost a week ago but is at 58% now after endorsing Rapin Roy Moore. That clearly rallied any wayward RINOs to his side.

 
Flynn story made it drop along with the tax bill being passed so hastily. Eventually the news cycle again tapering of and the same contingent of moderate republicans polled who swing between approve and disapprove went back to approving again.

So people have already forgotten about Manafort and Flynn, yet Atlas continues to pretend events 3 years before the election will have an impact. lol

[IceSpear]

I would have thought the tax bill would have helped him but he's been nosediving on RCP. He's lost two points in the last week or so.

Nothing will ever help Trump improve.

Eh. He was at 62% disapproval almost a week ago but is at 58% now after endorsing Rapin Roy Moore. That clearly rallied any wayward RINOs to his side.

 
Flynn story made it drop along with the tax bill being passed so hastily. Eventually the news cycle again tapering of and the same contingent of moderate republicans polled who swing between approve and disapprove went back to approving again.

So people have already forgotten about Manafort and Flynn, yet Atlas continues to pretend events 3 years before the election will have an impact. lol

9/11 had an impact in 2004.

9/11s don't happen every day. I mean the "Klobuchar didn't call for Franken to resign, SHE'S FINISHED!" and the "muh tax bill" crap.

[IceSpear]

Great poll for Trump. https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/colorado-political-landscape/

Only -20 in approval in Colorado, a state with a disproportionate amount of Latinos and college educated whites, not to mention that he lost it by 5 points. He should be down by much more, but this suggests his national approval rating is only about -13 or so, and rising.

Because it's every president's dream to be at "only -20" in a state you lost by 5 points and "only -13" nationally.

[IceSpear]

50-43 approval in KY.

http://m.wave3.com/wave/db_336805/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=fFRTaxUV

Racist KY Hicks are Trump's freiwal.

[IceSpear]

Libertarians4Trump, lol

[IceSpear]

But keep pushing out college-educated white people and minorities and wonder why the GOP loses everything. I don't feel welcome in the post-truth GOP party that poops on civil rights even harder than it used to.

They don't mind giving you up as long as they get at least one deplorable in return.

[IceSpear]

Trump just tweeted about the Rasmussen poll. I think the amount of genuine hate I have for a polling company is unhealthy.

It's pretty funny how low the bar is that a 46% approval rating is considered a triumph for him. I mean, it's blatantly obvious that he's going to be getting at least 45% of the vote in 2020 regardless, so it really doesn't make a difference if he's at 35 or 40 or 45.

[IceSpear]

Trump just tweeted about the Rasmussen poll. I think the amount of genuine hate I have for a polling company is unhealthy.

It's pretty funny how low the bar is that a 46% approval rating is considered a triumph for him. I mean, it's blatantly obvious that he's going to be getting at least 45% of the vote in 2020 regardless, so it really doesn't make a difference if he's at 35 or 40 or 45.

I think he's guaranteed at least 40% due to polarization (even Hoover managed that), but I don't know if 45% is his absolute floor. If nothing else, more of his voters are more likely to have passed away by the time 2020 comes around than Clinton's are. Consider also that he only got 45.9% in 2016. And then there's that tid bit about Obama being the only President in memory to have gotten a higher vote share than his approval rating, and that was by only a point. So if he's not near 45% approval come election day, I think his floor could very well be lower than 45%.

Yeah, the people that say they disapprove but will still vote for him over any Democrat will come home, and his approval rating will rise. I expect lots of bedwetting when, assuming Trump is still in office, he starts getting low to mid 40s numbers throughout 2020 despite it not meaning squat.

[IceSpear]

Trump has been the best for the democrat party. We would have never gotten Doug Jones + 1.7 without Trump. I strongly approve of Trump

A 3 year senate seat for an 8 year Presidency is an interesting trade. I approve!

We got a 21 point swing in a Kansas house election. We got a 45 point swing in a recent Tennessee state house election. Don't worry - there'll be more incredible and historic losses that have never before been seen in America under your doofus-in-chief! Thanks for the albatross around the GOP, Krazeidiot.

That already happened pal. The Democrat party suffered historic losses in the 2014 and 2016 elections and began wailing about the fact that they kept losing.

I guess being condensed into this rump fringe is kinda lousy.

Gaining 2 Senate seats and 6 House seats is an interesting definition of "historic losses."

[IceSpear]

Trump just tweeted about the Rasmussen poll. I think the amount of genuine hate I have for a polling company is unhealthy.

It's pretty funny how low the bar is that a 46% approval rating is considered a triumph for him. I mean, it's blatantly obvious that he's going to be getting at least 45% of the vote in 2020 regardless, so it really doesn't make a difference if he's at 35 or 40 or 45.

I think he's guaranteed at least 40% due to polarization (even Hoover managed that), but I don't know if 45% is his absolute floor. If nothing else, more of his voters are more likely to have passed away by the time 2020 comes around than Clinton's are. Consider also that he only got 45.9% in 2016. And then there's that tid bit about Obama being the only President in memory to have gotten a higher vote share than his approval rating, and that was by only a point. So if he's not near 45% approval come election day, I think his floor could very well be lower than 45%.

Yeah, the people that say they disapprove but will still vote for him over any Democrat will come home, and his approval rating will rise. I expect lots of bedwetting when, assuming Trump is still in office, he starts getting low to mid 40s numbers throughout 2020 despite it not meaning squat.

Oh, I do too. But I see no reason to think he's guaranteed 45% even if most of those 2016 Trump voters who disapprove do come home. A significant chunk of those that voted for him but disapprove now likely won't come home. Add that to the churn of the electorate, and I don't think it's far fetched to imagine him dipping below 45% against a decent challenger.

Maybe. I don't think it would be significantly under 45% though. Maybe 43-44% in a yuge Democratic tsunami situation.

[IceSpear]

F**k. http://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/224801/changes-presidential-job-approval-tracking-reporting.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&g_campaign=item_203207&g_medium=copy

Thank god. You all need to get a life and take a Xanax. Nobody sane gives a f**k whether Trump's approval was -3 or +2 on a particular day, which by the way IS MOSTLY STATISTICAL NOISE ANYWAY.

[IceSpear]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 2-10, 901 adults (change from Nov 27-Dec 4)

Approve 35 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (-1)

LOL at their "analysis"

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Good sign to never take them seriously.

[IceSpear]

Trump is currently sitting at 40% approval. Unless you thought he was going to get less than 40% of the vote in 2020 (in which case you might be retarded), why do you care that he's rising? Would it really have mattered if more solid McCain voters approved of Bush and gave him a 45% rating instead of a 25% rating? It makes no practical difference. I'll be worried when Trump can expand beyond people that already voted for him, the vast majority of which will again rationalize a vote for him in 2020 even if Democrats nominated Jesus Christ himself.

[IceSpear]

48% of the country thinks the president is mentally stable.  How typically do presidents get reelected with those numbers?

Er, he won with 46% of the vote.