Is Darrell Issa in trouble?

[IceSpear]

I felt this was worthy of its own thread. Discuss.

[IceSpear]

Check out Scott Peters' performance in the 52nd: 58% in the primary!

As well as Ruiz dominating with 56.6% in CA-36 in a 3 way race. Just 4 years ago, Bono Mack trounced Ruiz in the primary 58-42 and retained her seat 8 years ago with the same numbers.

Although my gut instinct says it's a 55-45 Issa win at least, it depends quite a bit on how much the the state party wants to invest. I still remember being stunned by Rep. Calvert coming within 10,000 votes and <5% of losing in the 2008 Obama wave (R+6 district, mind you), despite no heavy investment by the Democrats to challenge the seat. Certainly worth a shot

For SoCal Republicans, if it doesn't appear so already, the times they are a-becoming quite different.

But on the other hand, Denham and Valadao performed extremely well.

[IceSpear]

Most of the district is in San Diego County, not Orange (check the maps, please) and Issa barely carried it. I'd say that Issa loses this seat, because it's not a good sign for any incumbent to perform that weakly in the primary.

The problem is that Issa is extremely rich. Dems will need to get serious about investing here if they want to take him out.

They better do it too. Claiming Issa's scalp would be glorious.

[IceSpear]

He's fallen even further since election night.

[IceSpear]

Apparently Issa said this to Applegate when he encountered him, according to Daily Kos (so take with a grain of salt):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ugh, what an insufferably arrogant SOB. Can we please get Steyer or Bloomberg to jump in here and show this a-hole he's not the only one with money?

[IceSpear]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

If it was just because of turnout issues, you'd expect Republicans to have done poorly across the board though. But that wasn't really the case. Denham and Royce performed very well, for example. It was pretty much just Issa who drastically underperformed (along with a few Democratic incumbents who overperformed)

[IceSpear]

An internal poll from the DCCC shows a 43-43 tie.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/jun/21/democratic-poll-shows-issa-tied/

[IceSpear]

I think we are reading too far into a low turnout R affair.

If it was just because of turnout issues, you'd expect Republicans to have done poorly across the board though. But that wasn't really the case. Denham and Royce performed very well, for example. It was pretty much just Issa who drastically underperformed (along with a few Democratic incumbents who overperformed)

Denham was under a majority. How is that overperforming?

I meant the GOP vote in general. Denham + the other Republican = 58%.