Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote

[IceSpear]

Hmm, the white vote will be close to a tie, but I think Hillary will very narrowly win it.

Hillary will win whites and the election by +12.

Uh...guys. If Hillary wins the white vote or comes close, the election is close to 60-40. Especially since if whites swing 20 points, Hispanics are certainly swinging her way as well.

My guess is that whites and blacks stay pretty much the same as 2012, with Hispanics swinging toward Hillary enough to make it 52-46.

[IceSpear]

Just to reiterate what I said earlier here, I dragged up the numbers and posted them in one of the other threads where it was discussed. Polling suggests Trump is wildly unpopular with black voters, even more so than a typical Republican candidate. Clinton, on the other hand, as we have seen is quite popular with black voters and is running as Obama 2.0 with his support. She might not get quite the percentage+turnout a black candidate like Obama got but there is nothing to suggest she'd do worse than Kerry 2004 or so.

Thinking Clinton will win the white vote though sounds optimistic. I'd like to think the American electorate is sensible enough that Trump would lose in a landslide, but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

If you bet on us being sensible, you're going to be disappointed. Don't forget that 46% of us voted for Sarah Palin to be a heartbeat away from the presidency at the same time the incumbent Republican president with a 25% approval rating destroyed the economy and presided over a botched and universally unpopular war.

[IceSpear]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life. 

https://progressivecynic.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/quote-i-have-gone-from-a-barry-goldwater-republican-to-a-new-democrat-but-i-think-my-underlying-hillary-clinton-116-71-68.jpg

Now, since Goldwater was a well known misogynist, as every Democrat knows, and Hillary was telling the truth, I guess her new slogan is:

"Hillary 2016: Misogyny is only okay when I say so"

You're really trying to make an issue of who someone supported when they were 16 years old? And you call others hacks? lmao