Sander's Chances

[IceSpear]

Well, you immediately start with a 45% base as a major party nominee. Sanders could possibly win if: a) he faces a joke candidate like Trump, b) he faces a right wing nutjob like Cruz, c) a major scandal hits the Republican nominee right before the election, or they completely collapse in some other way. I'd put the odds of these possibilities combined around ~3-5%. I think he has a <1% chance of winning the nomination, considering he's starting at a much lower base, and even in a scenario where he surges and gives Hillary a legitimate fight, it's extremely tough to see an actual path to victory for him. So option 2.

[IceSpear]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

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The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!