Predict the Next Democratic Wave

[IceSpear]

How are we defining wave? Do Dems have to take the House?

[IceSpear]

If a Republican wins in 2016, then 2018 (though Democrats won't make big gains in the senate). If a Democrat wins, then 2020 or 2022.

The Republicans might still have a net gain of Senate seats in 2018 even if they control the Presidency. The only Republican Senator who is vulnerable that year is Dean Heller, while on the Democratic side Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly  and Heidi Heitkamp are definately underdogs in their respective races and the right Republican candidates could take them down easily. In addition, Joe Manchin's senate seat would easily go Republican in 2018 if he retires that year. Assuming that the Republicans lose Nevada, but pick up Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota and Montana, they would end up with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2018 Senate elections.

Flake would be vulnerable in a wave.

[IceSpear]

Bottom line - Don't use the word 'will', as it implies a chance painfully close to 100% of an event, which you can never use two years out politically, barring things like Senate Races in AL going republican (because AL residents would vote for a dog with an R next to its name over any democrat).

Shelby is not inevitable. The election is still 21 months away, and Anything Can Happen In Politics™.