The GOP's "Big 4" (user search)
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  The GOP's "Big 4" (search mode)
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Author Topic: The GOP's "Big 4"  (Read 3058 times)
IceSpear
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Posts: 31,840
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« on: February 01, 2015, 06:35:02 PM »

If Rubio runs, he will absolutely have a following that puts him in that group. Also, my assumption is that Huckabee will basically be running a jacked-up version of Santorum's campaign from last time. So it's really a big five or big six depending on Rubio's decision.

I'd be hesitant to include Huckabee simply because I can't see the establishment letting him get the nomination. Even if he caught fire, I think they'd be more likely to try to engineer a brokered convention somehow than let Huckabee get it. As for Rubio, I doubt there's room for two "illegal loving" Floridians in the Republican primary, and every single day Jeb soaks up more of Rubio's would-be contributors.
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2015, 06:56:36 PM »

If Rubio runs, he will absolutely have a following that puts him in that group. Also, my assumption is that Huckabee will basically be running a jacked-up version of Santorum's campaign from last time. So it's really a big five or big six depending on Rubio's decision.

I'd be hesitant to include Huckabee simply because I can't see the establishment letting him get the nomination. Even if he caught fire, I think they'd be more likely to try to engineer a brokered convention somehow than let Huckabee get it. As for Rubio, I doubt there's room for two "illegal loving" Floridians in the Republican primary, and every single day Jeb soaks up more of Rubio's would-be contributors.
A majority of the delegates are pledged, meaning they are required to vote a certain way at the convention even if they support someone else. Even if every superdelegate voted against Huck, Huck could still get through easily with only pledged delegates, Romney got something like 1450 pledged delegates and the number of delegate votes to win the nomination was only 1144 in 2012. (The rest of Romney's 2061 delegate votes came from superdelegates and Gingrich/ Santorum delegates that were released from their pledges by Gingrich/Santorum) I highly doubt the RNC would be unethical enough to change the rules right in the middle of the primary season.

Not necessarily in that sense. More like stop Huckabee from being able to attain enough pledged delegates by bringing a "savior" into the race such as Mitt Romney. Fuel him with tons of cash, and devote tons of cash to destroying Huckabee, then hash it out in the brokered convention. The GOP actually debated doing this when it looked like Romney couldn't put away joke candidates like Santorum and Gingrich. I believe names of some "savior candidates" they floated were Christie and Daniels.
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