Describe a Potential Romney 2012/Hillary 2016 Voter

[IceSpear]

I don't think it's so much Republican women that could switch. Barring an explicitly sexist campaign, which to be fair is a possibility judging from comments people such as Priebus make, they'll likely stick with Romney pretty solidly. The real threat is right-leaning/centrist independent women. Most polls show the candidates performing more or less the same as in 2012 among their own party, but with Hillary doing much better than Obama among indies.

[IceSpear]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

[IceSpear]

4. Tea Party protest votes?  Or would they just go Constitution/Libertarian?

Some Tea Party people did actually vote for Obama as a protest vote

I highly doubt that.

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/10/how-many-tea-party-supporters-voted-for-obama/

And IIRC several writers for The American Conservative voted both for Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

The problem is that you can pretty much find ~10% of every demographic voting the opposite way you'd expect them to. Apparently there's a lot of confused "very liberals" who consistently vote Republican and "very conservatives" who consistently vote Democratic.