When everyone said Obama couldn’t beat Clinton? Yeah, that never happened.

[IceSpear]

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Kind of an old article, but I didn't see it until now, and it deconstructs the "2008 redux" talking point very well.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/01/remember-when-nobody-gave-obama-a-chance-to-beat-clinton-never-happened/

[IceSpear]

The difference between long shot and couldn't win is purely semantics.

The article actually addresses that as well. It shows that "Hillary is inevitable!" wasn't actually much of a thing at the time, and only emerged as a retrospective narrative.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is currently given 9/13 odds of getting the nomination. She had greater than 70% odds at points during 2008.  Pretty pathetic that all the Hillary supporters seem to have is "she's inevitable".

Did you read the article? If so, what points did you disagree with?

By the way, the fact that Hillary hasn't actually declared yet is probably holding back some people on those betting sites. Polls are way more valuable than they are regardless.

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

For the definition of HISSY FIT, look in the dictionary under IceSpear.

That...wasn't a hissy fit? It was a genuine question. Obviously nothing is a complete certainty, but it seems there's some cognitive dissonance at play here. If anyone suggested Senators like Schumer, Lankford, Leahy, etc. could lose because "anything can happen in politics! PRESIDENT DEWEY!!!!!!!!!!!" they'd be laughed off the forum.

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

The difference is that polling 2 years ago in an open-seat general election is almost invariably wrong, whereas OK/NY senatorial predictions are not. 

Hillary is most likely the next President, but hardly a shoe-in.

Well, we were discussing the primary. Of course she's not a lock in the general.