Kirk warns Duckworth to not run against him in 2016

[IceSpear]

He buys his own hype more than Scott Brown. Next thing he'll say is that Democrats should let him run unopposed, since he's so formidable. What an arrogant jerk.

And unlike Scott Brown, he's not even popular. He's mostly anonymous.

[IceSpear]

Duckworth may very well decide to jump into this race, it is better to be in striking distance of the majority than sitting in the minority in a chamber where legislation is beholdened by a small group of tea party members. Better to pass legislation than not and that is why the candidacy of Duckworth or whoever decides to challenge Kirk is worth the challenge.

I think whoever runs will run a competitive race and a small advantage.

Is this really OC?

[IceSpear]

Kirk might just be saber rattling. His political fate will depend on how far ahead of the Republican Presidential ticket he can run and how much his moderate brand in Illinois can resist a Presidential election year turnout.

If I recall, Illinois hasn't ousted a senator since 1998, when Carol Mosely-Braun lost re-election after a disastrous term. (To put it kindly). Before that, I think 1984, when Charles Percy (R-Illinois) was ousted.

Kirk is for gay marriage, pro-choice, and isn't that out of touch with the state. He should net a decent chunk of votes, especially Downstate and the Collar counties. I see Kirk winning 48-53% of the vote. Unless our GOP ticket completely collapses, Kirk has, starting out, a 50-50 shot. 

Mark Pryor and Mary Landrieu were also in touch with their states. In fact, pretty much everyone had LA as "lean D" at the start of the cycle...