NH-Sen: long Hassan wait

[IceSpear]

Isn't Ayotte reasonably popular? PPP had her up at 49/32. She seems fairly liked in New Hampshire and was reappointed Attorney General by a Democratic Governor, John Lynch. Given she probably would run ahead of the Republican ticket, she seems one of the safer incumbents facing re-election.

So was Shaheen at this point.

As were Pryor, Landrieu, Hagan, and Udall.

[IceSpear]

>Decimals
>New England College

Still, the dynamic of this race seems pretty obvious at the moment. If Hassan/Lynch run = toss up. If anyone else, it starts at lean R.

[IceSpear]

Assuming Clinton assumes office in JAN 2017, and eventual loss in WVA, this is a plausible map should Begich opt to run in AK.


51-50 senate Hickenlooper breaks tie

That's a strange map, since Reid starts in a hole, there is no WV Senate election in 2016 and won't be (Manchin would only resign if he becomes Governor after the election), and Ayotte and Toomey both start unmistakably favored, and Kirk and Johnson both seem no worse than 50/50 right now.

At this point in 2012, Landrieu was unmistakably favored and Pryor was no worse than 50/50.

[IceSpear]

So Toomey won 51-49 in 2010 and will be running in a blue state in a Presidential year and he's favored? The race is definitely a tossup.

Oh, I didn't even notice that part. Now that Sestak has confirmed he's running, PA is unquestionably a toss up.