Toomey's fairly popular and he seems pretty politically savvy. Assuming the environment tilts or leans Republican, I'd say he wins by the same margin as Casey in 2012. He'd probably pull it out even in a worse environment, which I don't expect.
So much wrong with this post. Toomey is not fairly popular, he's fairly
anonymous. Granted, that poll is very old, but there's nothing which would signify the third approve, third disapprove, third don't know dynamic would have changed in the past six months. You're right that he's politically savvy. If you think Toomey could win by a Casey-like margin in presidential year turnout, you're out of your mind. There's this thing called Philadelphia, ever heard of it? It's the thing that kept him to a 51-49 win even in a midterm Republican wave. It's also completely ridiculous you're assuming 2016 will be a Republican romp just because they had a friendly midterm. Because 2010 ensured President Romney, as we all know.
