IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,840
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
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« on: November 13, 2014, 06:25:31 PM » |
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Blacks are not going to get more Republican, and there's not going to be massive turnout dropoffs either. People tend to forget that Obama only improved black support/turnout marginally from Gore/Kerry levels.
Still, even this very modest dropoff in support/turnout could be fatal in a state like Georgia. If even Nunn and Carter can't appeal to whites in Georgia more than Obama can, why would Hillary be able to? Granted, she'll have higher turnout on her side, which will help. In a good year for Democrats, I could see Hillary making it close (maybe even closer than it was in 2008), but it's very tough to see her actually winning it. If she does, I actually see it being one of the last states to flip, in this order: NC (347) + MO (357) + NE-02 (358) + AZ (369) + IN (380) + GA (396) + AR (402). The rest of the Appalachian states are gone at this point (maybe even AR, but I'll tentatively keep it as possibility), and the rest are non starters of course.
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