CO-Mellman (D): Udall+3 in internal

[IceSpear]

Who cares? It's an internal.

[IceSpear]

Mellman was the only one to get Reid's victory right in 2010.

This isn't Nevada though. Nor is it 2010. Citing one right answer doesn't make them automatically more reliable than all of the other reliable pollsters that put Gardner ahead.

FWIW, Mellman got Heitkamp's win right as well.

Mellman was also the only pollster to call Shelley Berkeley's win.

What were Mellman's results for NV? Even if they had Berkley winning by 1 point, they were closer to the end result than the other pollsters which had Heller up 3-5 points.

As the link showed, the poll that Berkeley chose to release had her up by 3 points, which was further from the actual result than PPP or Marist were (albeit barely closer than SurveyUSA)

Yeah, I deleted it once I saw the link.

[IceSpear]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/elections/political-eye-pollster-tracked-berkleys-ups-downs

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Interesting that she did not choose to publicly release those internal polls showing her behind, instead publicly releasing polls showing her with a three-point lead. Will we hear after the election that Udall's internals privately showed him trailing as well?

Read it again, they never publicly released any internals in the last couple of weeks, when Berkley was down 1-2 points consistently, as it wouldn't make sense to release polls with your candidate trailing.

And that's a big part of why you can't trust internals. Candidates have their pollsters take tons of different polls at varying times with varying sample sizes and 'push' questions, and then release the one they like the best regardless of its validity.

Public Pollsters, on the other hand, release every poll they take, not just the ones they personally like the results of.

Except Rasmussen and Gravis.

[IceSpear]

Anyway, PPP will have a Colorado poll coming out in a few days, so that should provide more clarity. Their record in Colorado is very good. They were the only ones who didn't underestimate Obama's margin in 2008/2012, and also were the only ones that showed that Bennet had a chance.